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May 13th: Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Dominates the Week....

14/5/2018

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Donald Trump took centre stage in a week of high drama that confirmed to me he is the master of his own destiny when it comes to foreign policy, though he is easily influenced.

United States
Donald Trump’s foreign policy dominated last week with major decisions that ran directly in the face of recent conventional wisdom in American foreign policy.

His decision to withdraw American from the JcPOA (my thoughts here) combined with the announcement later in the week that his tête-à-tête with Kim Jong-Un is set for Singapore on June 12th.

These decisions show that while Trump is influenced by those around him, he ultimately believes he can do what he wants and pays little heed to foreign policy precedent.

In the run up to the November midterms this gung-ho approach may allow him to close the expected gap between the number of seats the Democrats return and may even allow the Republicans to retain the house…

United Kingdom
Another week with a lot of Brexit headlines but little tangible progress to go with it. It’s a disconcerting situation that continues to drag on with little visibility on how the situation will resolve itself.

Unfortunately, May’s leadership reminds me of a caterpillar that has been attacked and infected by a parasitic wasp. She still appears to be in control, but her decision making is driven by a select number of pro-Brexit MPs.

Fortunately for May, and unlike the poor caterpillars, she could yet play a decisive role in the final Brexit negotiations. However, to do so she would need to show real leadership and innovation and possibly find allies across the chamber.

Ireland
Tony O’Brien finally resigned last week after the pressure built and Sinn Fein had tabled a Motion of No Confidence that Fianna Fail announced they would support.

It looks like the scandal may rumble on for a while yet, and the devastation it has caused to Irish women and their families will last lifetimes, but the chances of it taking down the government or even the Minister for Health, Simon Harris, seem low unless some new evidence or communications emerge.
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