June 17th: Merkel in Danger and Brexit Shambles Continues...

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United Kingdom
Theresa May managed to almost get all the Lords’ amendments through the Commons last week.

However, the compromise she had to make with the Tory rebels to ensure their compliance on the Meaningful Vote amendment may ultimately lead to her suffering a heavy defeat this Wednesday. if the Lords send back the same amendment she was able to convince Dominic Grieve et all not to support, it is now very unclear they would be willing to back down again.

They believed they had been promised a lot more than what was confirmed by No. 10 after the votes had been completed.

Theresa May had another headache late last week as she suffered a media and a political backlash to her announcement that the NHS will receive a funding increase to the equivalent of 384 million pounds a week.

This figure is very similar to the widely castigated 350 million NHS Brexit bus. In an article last week I wrote that Theresa May could get all the votes through the Commons and still have a terrible June. Nothing last week changed that opinion…

Ireland
Sinn Fein held their Ard Fheis at the weekend and it seemed to be quite a success with a lot more positive coverage from media in the Republic than typically observed for Sinn Fein events.

I will write an update on the state of play in Irish politics after the next Sunday Business Post poll as then there will be a round of polls that have absorbed any impact from the 8th Amendment referendum.

Germany
It feels a little surreal writing this but Angela Merkel’s position is now under serious threat after a week of accusations and rows around immigration in German politics.

I haven’t followed the story closely enough to wrote more here but there seems every chance I could be writing about her resignation this time next week. I almost take it for granted that Theresa May is the sick lady of European politics but outlasting Merkel after May’s own annus horribilis would be quite the accomplishment…