 ,The last week has easily been Joe Biden’s best of the campaign. After the New Hampshire Primary, it looked like his campaign was in freefall and there was even a small chance that he wouldn’t make it to Super Tuesday.
At that point, Bernie Sanders was the clear frontrunner and there was a small window here he was projected to win every single state by some analysts. However, Biden’s recovery started in the Nevada debate where he steadied the ship. He followed that up with a second-place finish there and then had a massive win last Saturday in South Carolina. Since then, he’s been endorsed by Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar (who both dropped out in the last few days) and is now polling first in quite a few of the races. I have a preview of each state below. I have included the number of delegates for each state, their current polling from www.270towin.com and my predictions of how the candidates place. A few caveats though;
California – 415 Delegates Sanders 34.6%, Warren 15.4%, Biden 15%, Bloomberg 12.6% It is almost inconceivable that Sanders does not win in California today. I will be looking closely at who finishes second. I expect both Warren and Biden to clear the 15% threshold though I think Biden will eventually finish in second. I don’t think Bloomberg makes the 15% cut. I used eventually because the final results will not be available for a few weeks. Sanders, Biden, Warren Texas – 228 Delegates Sanders 29.9%, Biden 21.6%, Bloomberg 17.7%, Warren 12.9% This will be very close between Sanders and Biden and I don’t think the gap is anything near 8% that the polling average shows. Last night, Beto O’Rourke endorsed Biden and I can see a lot of the previously undecided swinging his way. I expect the final gap between Sanders and Biden to be within 3% and I think Warren overtakes Bloomberg Sanders, Biden North Carolina – 110 Delegates Sanders 25%, Biden 23.8%, Bloomberg 16.6%, Warren 11.2% The polling has not painted a clear picture in North Carolina with Sanders leading in more polls but Biden having a substantial lead in others. I think the recent momentum will help Biden to take North Carolina and I can see Warren falling just below 10% Biden, Sanders, Bloomberg Virginia – 99 Delegates Sanders 22.3%, Biden 19.7%, Bloomberg 17.3%, Warren 10% This is another state that I think Biden has now overtaken Sanders in. I can see a very strong finish for Biden with him claiming approximately 35% of the vote. However, unlike North Carolina, I don’t think Bloomberg clears the 15% anymore so this will be a strong delegate haul for Biden. Biden, Sanders Massachusetts – 91 Delegates Sanders 22.4%, Warren 19.6%, Bloomberg 12%, Biden 11.8% This should be Warren’s last stand. If she can’t win here, she realistically can’t win anywhere. Unfortunately for her, I don’t think she will and I expect Sanders to take it with Warren in second and a few late voters getting Biden over the 15% threshold. Sanders, Warren, Biden Minnesota – 75 Delegates Sanders 22%, Warren 13.5%, Biden 8.5%, Bloomberg 6% Sanders should be the strong favourite here as he had a fantastic result in 2016. Even though the former state frontrunner and home Senator, Amy Klobuchar, has dropped out and endorsed Joe Biden, I still expect Sanders to win but I think Biden could leapfrog Warren into second place. Sanders, Biden, Warren Colorado – 67 Delegates Sanders 30.5%, Warren 17.5%, Bloomberg 12.5%, Biden 10.5% I expect a big win for Sanders here as the state’s demographics are very favourable for his coalition. I also think it will be one of the states where Joe Biden does not manage to clear the 15%. Sanders, Warren Tennessee – 64 Delegates No Polls Very hard to predict without any polls but I think it should be Biden’s state as the demographics are closer to South Carolina. Sanders will probably clear 15%. I am not sure how much Bloomberg has spent here but he could finish above Warren. Biden, Sanders, Bloomberg Alabama – 52 Delegates No Polls Again, very difficult to predict and my only real prediction is that the gap between Biden and Sanders here is larger than in Tennessee. I will hazard a guess that Bloomberg manages to beat Sanders into his only non-top two finish on the night. Biden, Bloomberg, Sanders Oklahoma – 37 Delegates Bloomberg 18%, Sanders 17%, Biden 11%, Warren 8% ***Only One Poll*** Very difficult to call but I think both Biden and Sanders will overtake Bloomberg. Biden, Sanders, Bloomberg Arkansas – 31 Delegates Bloomberg 20%, Biden 19%, Sanders 16%, Warren 9% ***Only One Poll*** Another very murky state with little polling data. Biden’s late boost should get him over the line here too. Biden, Sanders, Bloomberg Utah – 29 Delegates Sanders 28%, Bloomberg 19%, Warren 15%, Biden 6% Sanders looks strong here and I expect a solid win for him. I think Biden will make a lot of ground from that 6% poll, mainly at the expense of Bloomberg. Sanders, Warren, Biden Maine – 24 Delegates Sanders 25%, Bloomberg 14%, Biden 12%, Warren 9% ***Only One Poll*** This should be another win for Sanders though Biden will be much closer than this poll suggests. I think this state could be one of the few that genuinely resembles a two-horse race. Sanders, Biden Vermont – 16 Delegates Sanders 51%, Warren 9%, Bloomberg 7%, Biden 5% As his home state, I can see Sanders clearing the 50% mark here and winning the vast majority of the delegates. It will be interesting to see whether Warren or Biden finishes second. Sanders, Biden Democrats Abroad – 13 Delegates No Polls At this stage I am just guessing. Sanders, Warren, Biden American Samoa – 6 Delegates No Polls Hillary had a big win here in 2016 so I suggest it will be a state that Biden wins. Biden, Sanders, Warren
Comments
|
Archives
May 2020
Categories
All
|
RSS Feed
