I got quite a lot wrong in 2019. I actually can’t even really put all the errors down to one single thematic error. I think I was probably a little too pessimistic in terms of where the economy would be, while I also envisaged less movement in British Politics.
Paradoxically, I also predicted we’d have an Irish General Election by now, which has been pushed back into next year. Overall, it wasn’t my best effort at predictions but it has given me plenty of food for thought as I try and be a little bit more successful looking at the year ahead.
Beginning of a serious global economic downturn
There have been many threats to the global economy in 2019 and, at times, it did look like 2019 could be the year that the ten year bull run ended truly ended.
However, this simply wasn’t the case. The markets ended the year quite strongly and most people, thankfully, didn’t experience the economic and financial woes I feared a global recession would bring about.
Brexit to happen
This was a strange one to call. In legal terms, Britain remains a member of the European Union as we start 2020, so I was wrong. However, Boris Johnson’s massive majority won on December 12th meant that in many people’s minds, Brexit has been a foregone conclusion since.
The actual exit date will be January 31st at the very latest though the transition period agreed means that very little will change until January 1st, 2021.
No British General Election
What can I say about this one? I was just wrong. I thought Theresa May would somehow get Brexit over the line, hang on and try and avoid having an election until she could get some initiative back on her domestic agenda. I was wrong on all three fronts...
Theresa May to be Prime Minister and Jeremy Corbyn still to be Leader of the Opposition on January 1st 2020
Theresa May is long gone and while Jeremy Corbyn is staying in place until a new Labour leader is elected, it’s fair to say I called this one badly too.
Irish General Election to take place
It threatened at times and this was definitely a contrarian view on January 1st 2019. However, the majority were correct and the Fine Gael - Fianna Fail Confidence and Supply Agreement survived another year. There is very little doubt that there will be an election in 2020.
Trump to still be President on Jan 1st 2020 even if impeached…
I called this one correctly. I felt he could be impeached but believed he would not resign and would fight all the way. I’ll be making a few 2020 predictions in American politics so I wont delve too deeply now.
No Northern Ireland Assembly
I simply couldn’t see it getting back up and running in 2019. As I sit here writing this on January 1st, Simon Coveney is again travelling to Belfast to try and get the parties to agree on on a dela to get Stormont back up and running. If they don’t agree to do so by January 13th, the Northern Ireland Secretary, Julian Smith, has stated he will call an election.
Arlene Foster to be replaced as DUP Leader
Arlene Foster has survived as the DUP leader but she has overseen one of their worst ever years and I can’t really see how her leadership continues for much longer. Her leadership isn’t quite as hollow as Jeremy Corbyn’s but she must be quite close to being put out of her misery.
Far-right gains to be disappointing in EU Parliamentary Elections
This may be my happiest correct prediction. The far-right did make gains but they have not gained control of the EU Parliament and their influence has only slightly increased. There have been many gains for the far right across the globe in recent years and, unfortunately, it is still too early to decide if they have reached their high tide of influence.
Social Democrats to win the Most Seats in Danish General Election
The Social Democrats won the Most Seats in the June 2019 General Election and their leader, Mette Frederiksen became the Prime Minister. A reminder that the European Social Democrats haven’t gone away you know…
Socialist Party to win the Most Seats in Portuguese General Election
The Socialist Party increased their share of the popular vote from 32% to 36% and gained a further 22 seats for a very impressive electoral performance. Portugal is the beacon of hope for socialism in Europe currently...