I honestly have never felt as emotionally invested in a UK General Election as I am for tomorrow. I'm an unabashed Corbynista but the predictions I make for tomorrow do not reflect this. My predictions are all in numerical terms so by Friday evening I'll have nowhere to hide if I have misread the British political landscape...
1. Conservatives to get 43% of the vote, Labour to get 35%
I would love to get this wrong but this is what I predict. I don't know exactly how this translates into seats but would be an increased majority. It's based on a combination of previous election results and speaking to my British friends and colleagues. Corbyn has ran a good campaign and may privately even see a 8% defeat as a decent result.
In 2015 the Tories got 36.8% and Labour 30.5%. While I believe Labour will pull some voters back who defected in 2015, one crucial factor in this election is the 12.5% of the electorate who voted UKIP then. I see at least 2/3 of these voters going over to the Tories and this will compensate for any further floating voters who move Left.
2. SNP to gain less than 50 seats
They gained 56 out of 59 in 2015 but their message seems a little mixed to me now. The engrossing battle between Corbyn and May will have captivated many in Scotland and I think some votes will move back to the two main parties.
3. DUP to gain 5000 votes more than Sinn Fein
It was 8,000 in the 2015 General Election but only 1,200 in the Northern Ireland Assembly Election in March. I see it as an inevitability that Sinn Fein will eventually overtake the DUP due to the changing demographics of Northern Ireland. However Sinn Fein's abstentionist policy and a smarting DUP should mean the gap widens slightly this time around.
4. UUP to have 0 seats at Westminster for the first time
They only have 2 now. They have been on the decline for a long time and I don't think they'll hold either seat as the middle ground gets squeezed in Northern Ireland.