I’ve spent a lot of time read, analysing and writing about the 2020 Democratic Primary contest.
It’s been a fascinating journey and has really touched upon some of the key questions in politics in the 21st Century.
The Left versus the Centre?, can minority candidates compete at the highest level of American politics or was Barack Obama the exception to the rule? and what type of candidate is best placed to beat Donald Trump in November?
As I mentioned yesterday on Twitter, I have called the race for Joe Biden. His lead is not yet insurmountable in the delegate count but his polling versus Sanders for the next ten or so states, today and this day week, means it will all be over by April 1st.
When I first wrote about this race back on March 3rd, 2019, Joe Biden was leading the hypothetical polling (he had not yet announced that he would run) but behind Bernie Sanders and Kamala Harris in betting odds.
While the race itself has been very fluid with many candidates making bursts for the front of the pack, Biden has always been in the top two while Sanders has mainly stayed in the top three or four.
In the end, I think not enough experts and observers focused on the fact that the moderates have always been about 60% while the progressives rarely surpassed 40%. Hindsight is 20/20 but it should have been more obvious that if a progressive managed to dominate that lane, the Democratic Party would strongly encourage the weaker moderates to drop out and endorse the moderate frontrunner. From a polling standpoint, that has always been Joe Biden.
There are seven states tonight and Biden should win at least six and maybe all seven. I don’t expect Sanders to drop out yet – I also don’t believe he should as Biden needs to be tested in a 1 v 1 debate format on March 15th- but I think he may start to think about it after March 17th if he is also comprehensively beaten in the four states that have their primaries that day.
I am going to take a break from writing about American politics for a few months now. I will still make observations on Twitter but until Biden is officially unveiled as the Democratic Candidate, I’ll refrain from writing about hypothetical match ups and November previews.
I am quite disappointed with the results and the candidature of Joe Biden from my own personal perspective. However, my real fear is that Donald Trump eviscerates Biden in the debates and we have another four years of Trump as President.
The Democratic Party and most of the media have waxed lyrical about both Biden’s ability to build a broad coalition of support and to defeat Trump. For all our sakes, I hope they are correct…