This is my first blog post in over two months. That gap roughly coincides with the Covid 19 crisis escalating across Europe and the rest of the world and directly impacting the vast majority of our lives.
Up until then, 2020 had already been an interesting year politically for me with a shock (almost) victory for Sinn Fein in the Irish General Election, Joe Biden clinching the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination and Kier Starmer becoming the leader of the UK Labour Party.
While all three of these results could have long term consequences, they were all overshadowed by the media and political black hole that is the most deadly pandemic in decades. As I write this, the global number of infected stands at over 4.5 million people with 300 thousand fatalities. I genuinely have no idea if that number double, triple or quadruple by the end of the year though the exponential growth does seem to have (at least) temporarily tapered off in most European countries at present.
What I want to write about today though is some probable political consequences and impacts of this pandemic over the next one to five years. I am going to write about this in relation to areas of interest for me, as I have mainly written about politics in certain countries since I started A Bit Left and A Bit Lost. However, I really want to emphasise though that I am trying to think about this as objectively as possible. Unfortunately, I think a lot of people subconsciously see this pandemic as an opportunity to further their causes or, at the very least, have optimistically decided that the majority will suddenly come into line with their views given the shared experience we have all endured. I hope to write about some lifestyle trends that may change in a later article.
A Massive Break for Fine Gael
There will be people who call this distasteful but there will be "winners" from any crises. It's clear my political views do not align with Fine Gael but that is not why I am writing this. Fine Gael had a horrific election on February 8th, coming third in the number of seats behind both Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein with 35, 38 and 37 respectively. Leo Varadkar was only elected on the fifth count and a number of high profile TDs like Regina Doherty lost her seat. The election did not produce a clear winner though and as negotiations were slow to begin, the Covid 19 pandemic rapidly came to the fore. Varadkar and Simon Harris, the outgoing Health Minister, maintained their positions as in Irish law they do so until a new Taoiseach and government are elected in the Dail. This allowed Fine Gael to "own" the early addresses to the nation which took place when the electorate was following every detail, had not endured the worst of the daily deaths and lockdown fatigue had not yet kicked in. Negotiations are still ongoing thought does noes appear that Fine Gael and Fianna Fail will go into coalition together on a rotating Taoiseach basis, propped up by some of the smaller parties. On February 12th, Varadkar stated "I think the likelihood is that at the end of this process that I’ll be the leader of the opposition...", it is now possible that Varadkar takes the first round of the rotation and is returned as Taoiseach despite his party finishing third. This is no small way would be a result of his performance during the pandemic.
A Setback for a United Ireland in the Short Term
The United Kingdom has suffered terribly in the pandemic with one of the highest total number of fatalities of any country in the world. The Tory Government has endured an awful lot of criticism ranging from accusations of arrogance and "ignoring the science" to incompetence and a haphazard approach to testing. There are many in the North of Ireland, and in the South, who still view Irish Unity through the prism of "England's difficulty is Ireland's gain". I do think the pandemic has exacerbated the differences between England and the other three nations of the United Kingdom. I also think that the budgetary constraints that the almost certain Covid 19 recession will bring will be at the forefront of the average Irish voter's mind for the foreseeable future, particularly as it does appear that Sinn Fein will be locked out of government. I have always felt that 2025 is a decent target for a Border Poll though I know many campaigners of Irish Unity would prefer it sooner. With the current ambiguity of what triggers a Border Poll in the Good Friday Agreement, I think both the Irish and British governments will be able to bat away calls for a Unity vote as "distracting" and "frivolous" over the next three years (my short term definition here). This will be less feasible when the global economy starts to pick up again and further details have emerged about different countries' performance during the pandemic.
The Democrats are Now Clear Favourites in November
Once it became clear after March 3rd (Super Tuesday) that Joe Biden was the likely Democratic candidate, I felt that November was a toss up. Biden has the potential to carry a broad coalition of Democratic voters, especially as Bernie Sanders endorsed him almost immediately. On the other hand, Trump should not be underestimated and at that time, America was still enjoying a very buoyant economy with incredibly strong jobs. The pandemic has changed all of that. It has directly led to thirty-three million job losses in seven weeks and has obliterated Trump's bulwark of a "record-breaking economy". I now think the dial has firmly moved to the Democrats. Biden remains a candidate with clear weaknesses; he is gaffe-prone and the cloud of sexual assault allegations looms over him. I think he can actually learn a little from the British Conservatives campaign in 2019, he doesn't need to always be front and centre where he is most exposed. He needs to get more accomplished and popular speakers like Barack Obama "batting" for him. There is a very small chance that the American economy recovers between now and November but that is highly unlikely. Therefore, as of today, the Democrats are favourites to re-take the White House and could even flip the Senate on a very good day.
Less Short Term Impact on British Politics
The Conservative majority is large enough that there will be no short term fundamental changes in British political dynamics. Keir Starmer is gaining some early plaudits for his PMQs performances but we could still be four and a half years from the next British election so it all feels a little irrelevant now. Boris Johnson may need to start watching his back in two to three years if his performance as Prime Minister continues to disappoint some influential Conservative factions but again, that is for the future. The Scottish Assembly elections next May could genuinely be historic but I think we need to hold back on making predictions on them for now as, unlike the US Presidential Election in November, I do think some underlying fundamentals cold shift by then.
I’ve spent a lot of time read, analysing and writing about the 2020 Democratic Primary contest.
It’s been a fascinating journey and has really touched upon some of the key questions in politics in the 21st Century.
The Left versus the Centre?, can minority candidates compete at the highest level of American politics or was Barack Obama the exception to the rule? and what type of candidate is best placed to beat Donald Trump in November?
As I mentioned yesterday on Twitter, I have called the race for Joe Biden. His lead is not yet insurmountable in the delegate count but his polling versus Sanders for the next ten or so states, today and this day week, means it will all be over by April 1st.
When I first wrote about this race back on March 3rd, 2019, Joe Biden was leading the hypothetical polling (he had not yet announced that he would run) but behind Bernie Sanders and Kamala Harris in betting odds.
While the race itself has been very fluid with many candidates making bursts for the front of the pack, Biden has always been in the top two while Sanders has mainly stayed in the top three or four.
In the end, I think not enough experts and observers focused on the fact that the moderates have always been about 60% while the progressives rarely surpassed 40%. Hindsight is 20/20 but it should have been more obvious that if a progressive managed to dominate that lane, the Democratic Party would strongly encourage the weaker moderates to drop out and endorse the moderate frontrunner. From a polling standpoint, that has always been Joe Biden.
There are seven states tonight and Biden should win at least six and maybe all seven. I don’t expect Sanders to drop out yet – I also don’t believe he should as Biden needs to be tested in a 1 v 1 debate format on March 15th- but I think he may start to think about it after March 17th if he is also comprehensively beaten in the four states that have their primaries that day.
I am going to take a break from writing about American politics for a few months now. I will still make observations on Twitter but until Biden is officially unveiled as the Democratic Candidate, I’ll refrain from writing about hypothetical match ups and November previews.
I am quite disappointed with the results and the candidature of Joe Biden from my own personal perspective. However, my real fear is that Donald Trump eviscerates Biden in the debates and we have another four years of Trump as President.
The Democratic Party and most of the media have waxed lyrical about both Biden’s ability to build a broad coalition of support and to defeat Trump. For all our sakes, I hope they are correct…
,The last week has easily been Joe Biden’s best of the campaign. After the New Hampshire Primary, it looked like his campaign was in freefall and there was even a small chance that he wouldn’t make it to Super Tuesday.
At that point, Bernie Sanders was the clear frontrunner and there was a small window here he was projected to win every single state by some analysts. However, Biden’s recovery started in the Nevada debate where he steadied the ship. He followed that up with a second-place finish there and then had a massive win last Saturday in South Carolina. Since then, he’s been endorsed by Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar (who both dropped out in the last few days) and is now polling first in quite a few of the races.
I have a preview of each state below. I have included the number of delegates for each state, their current polling from www.270towin.com and my predictions of how the candidates place.
A few caveats though;
California – 415 Delegates
Sanders 34.6%, Warren 15.4%, Biden 15%, Bloomberg 12.6%
It is almost inconceivable that Sanders does not win in California today. I will be looking closely at who finishes second. I expect both Warren and Biden to clear the 15% threshold though I think Biden will eventually finish in second. I don’t think Bloomberg makes the 15% cut.
I used eventually because the final results will not be available for a few weeks.
Sanders, Biden, Warren
Texas – 228 Delegates
Sanders 29.9%, Biden 21.6%, Bloomberg 17.7%, Warren 12.9%
This will be very close between Sanders and Biden and I don’t think the gap is anything near 8% that the polling average shows. Last night, Beto O’Rourke endorsed Biden and I can see a lot of the previously undecided swinging his way. I expect the final gap between Sanders and Biden to be within 3% and I think Warren overtakes Bloomberg
North Carolina – 110 Delegates
Sanders 25%, Biden 23.8%, Bloomberg 16.6%, Warren 11.2%
The polling has not painted a clear picture in North Carolina with Sanders leading in more polls but Biden having a substantial lead in others. I think the recent momentum will help Biden to take North Carolina and I can see Warren falling just below 10%
Biden, Sanders, Bloomberg
Virginia – 99 Delegates
Sanders 22.3%, Biden 19.7%, Bloomberg 17.3%, Warren 10%
This is another state that I think Biden has now overtaken Sanders in. I can see a very strong finish for Biden with him claiming approximately 35% of the vote. However, unlike North Carolina, I don’t think Bloomberg clears the 15% anymore so this will be a strong delegate haul for Biden.
Massachusetts – 91 Delegates
Sanders 22.4%, Warren 19.6%, Bloomberg 12%, Biden 11.8%
This should be Warren’s last stand. If she can’t win here, she realistically can’t win anywhere. Unfortunately for her, I don’t think she will and I expect Sanders to take it with Warren in second and a few late voters getting Biden over the 15% threshold.
Sanders, Warren, Biden
Minnesota – 75 Delegates
Sanders 22%, Warren 13.5%, Biden 8.5%, Bloomberg 6%
Sanders should be the strong favourite here as he had a fantastic result in 2016. Even though the former state frontrunner and home Senator, Amy Klobuchar, has dropped out and endorsed Joe Biden, I still expect Sanders to win but I think Biden could leapfrog Warren into second place.
Sanders, Biden, Warren
Colorado – 67 Delegates
Sanders 30.5%, Warren 17.5%, Bloomberg 12.5%, Biden 10.5%
I expect a big win for Sanders here as the state’s demographics are very favourable for his coalition. I also think it will be one of the states where Joe Biden does not manage to clear the 15%.
Tennessee – 64 Delegates
Very hard to predict without any polls but I think it should be Biden’s state as the demographics are closer to South Carolina. Sanders will probably clear 15%. I am not sure how much Bloomberg has spent here but he could finish above Warren.
Biden, Sanders, Bloomberg
Alabama – 52 Delegates
Again, very difficult to predict and my only real prediction is that the gap between Biden and Sanders here is larger than in Tennessee. I will hazard a guess that Bloomberg manages to beat Sanders into his only non-top two finish on the night.
Biden, Bloomberg, Sanders
Oklahoma – 37 Delegates
Bloomberg 18%, Sanders 17%, Biden 11%, Warren 8% ***Only One Poll***
Very difficult to call but I think both Biden and Sanders will overtake Bloomberg.
Biden, Sanders, Bloomberg
Arkansas – 31 Delegates
Bloomberg 20%, Biden 19%, Sanders 16%, Warren 9% ***Only One Poll***
Another very murky state with little polling data. Biden’s late boost should get him over the line here too.
Biden, Sanders, Bloomberg
Utah – 29 Delegates
Sanders 28%, Bloomberg 19%, Warren 15%, Biden 6%
Sanders looks strong here and I expect a solid win for him. I think Biden will make a lot of ground from that 6% poll, mainly at the expense of Bloomberg.
Sanders, Warren, Biden
Maine – 24 Delegates
Sanders 25%, Bloomberg 14%, Biden 12%, Warren 9% ***Only One Poll***
This should be another win for Sanders though Biden will be much closer than this poll suggests. I think this state could be one of the few that genuinely resembles a two-horse race.
Vermont – 16 Delegates
Sanders 51%, Warren 9%, Bloomberg 7%, Biden 5%
As his home state, I can see Sanders clearing the 50% mark here and winning the vast majority of the delegates. It will be interesting to see whether Warren or Biden finishes second.
Democrats Abroad – 13 Delegates
At this stage I am just guessing.
Sanders, Warren, Biden
American Samoa – 6 Delegates
Hillary had a big win here in 2016 so I suggest it will be a state that Biden wins.
Biden, Sanders, Warren
Tomorrow is the Nevada Caucus. I am genuinely very excited as we will finally get a clearer picture as to how the candidates will fare in a state that is more representative of the overall demographics of the United States.
In the New Hampshire Primary, Sanders (25.6%) won by a tighter than expected margin as Pete Buttigieg (24.3%) had another strong performance. However, the standout star in many ways was Amy Klobuchar who outperformed expectations winning 19.7% of the vote and being the third and final candidate to win delegates.
On the other hand, it was a disastrous night for Elizabeth Warren (9.2%), Joe Biden (8.3%) and Andrew Yang (2.8%) who I correctly predicted would withdraw from the race after New Hampshire.
The ten days since then have been a story of two halves. The first few days coverage was mainly focused on the rise of Micheal Bloomberg in the polls. His astronomical spending on TV ads had really lifted his national polling numbers even if he is not competing until the 16 state battles on March 3rd aka Super Tuesday. Some were been beginning to question whether he was the real frontrunner after Sanders’ less than stellar New Hampshire win.
There was also a lot of debate as to whether Buttigieg, Klobuchar or even both could capitalise on their strong showing in the first two contests to kick on and build a broader coalition of support that included the very important Latino and Black voter groups.
On Wednesday night at the Nevada debate, it was quite clear that Sanders is the frontrunner as gloves were barely landed on him whereas Bloomberg was skewered constantly. In particular, Warren really hit him hard and this has certainly given her a boost ahead of voting tomorrow.
There was also little love lost between Buttigieg and Klobuchar and I do wonder whether both camps have decided that there is only room for one of them in this campaign. If that is the case, I would expect Buttigieg to outlast Klobuchar as his support is stronger both in Nevada and nationally ahead of Super Tuesday.
Klobuchar does have her home state, Minnesota, on that day. A win there would probably allow her to withdraw with her head held high whereas a defeat surely indicates she cannot win anywhere and donations would quickly dry up.
Moving back to Nevada, Sanders is the clear favourite and could win by 10% or more on a good day. The 30% of the voting population of Nevada that are Latino are likely to come out in droves for him and the only blip in his Nevada campaign has been a fallout out with the Nevada Culinary Union. It is significant however that the union still did not endorse another candidate.
Ahead of New Hampshire, I said Sanders had to win. Now, I think another narrow win is not enough to maintain momentum, he needs a clear victory with a margin of at least 5%…
Joe Biden is the only other candidate consistently polling at or around the 15% needed to win delegates. Unfortunately for him, in the 3 most recent Nevada polls his best score has still been behind Sander’s worst and it would be a massive upset if he managed to pull off a win. I think a good night for Biden is a strong second finish while a bonus would be if no other candidate polled above 15%.
As for the rest of the candidates, a finish above 15% would be a great result and I think Warren is the only other one who could even dream of winning tomorrow but even after a strong debate performance that is highly unlikely.
I’ll do another write-up next Friday ahead of the South Carolina Primary the following day. I don’t think we’ll see a narrowing of the field before then but with seventeen state contests in four days, by Wednesday, March 4th the national picture will be a lot clearer…
Tom Steyer (Implied Probability: 0.3% / New (National Polling: 2% - 4%) (Nevada Polling: 10% - 11%)
Amy Klobuchar (Implied Probability: 0.7% / -2.1% (National Polling: 4% - 9%) (Nevada Polling: 9% - 11%)
Elizabeth Warren (Implied Probability: 2.8% / -2.2% (National Polling: 12% - 16%) (Nevada Polling: 12% - 16%)
Joe Biden (Implied Probability: 7.7% / -1.0% (National Polling: 15% - 22%) (Nevada Polling: 14% - 18%)
Pete Buttigieg (Implied Probability: 10.6% / -1.3% (National Polling: 8% - 13%) (Nevada Polling: 10% - 17%)
Michael Bloomberg (Implied Probability: 18.2% / -6.2% (National Polling: 9% - 15%) (Nevada Polling: N/A)
Bernie Sanders (Implied Probability: 48.5% / +8.8% (National Polling: 24% - 32%) (Nevada Polling: 25% - 35%)
The New Hampshire Primary takes place today. I just wanted to pen a few thoughts without going into too much detail as I am very time limited today. The last update was a week ago to preview Iowa.
I have always presented a fixed set of data about the top seven candidates which I have placed at the bottom today. However, I have then always added a little blurb on each candidate’s recent changes in polling and probability, as well as assessing their prospects. Unfortunately, today I am just going to write a short preview on how tonight will go and what that will mean for the race to be the Next Democratic Presidential candidate.
Bernie Sanders simply has to win tonight. This will be the easiest of all 50 states for him and if he fails to win here, then we might start to see the decline of his campaign.
There are a few reasons why I believe this to be the case;
Buttigieg had a fantastic result in Iowa and it looks like he either won by a very small margin or finished level with Sanders. However, Buttigieg really exceeded expectation there and got a big bump in national polls. He will struggle to reach the 15% threshold in Nevada or South Carolina unless he can win tonight or, at the very least, poll very strongly.
Amy Klobuchar and Elizabeth Warren need to get over the 15% threshold so that they can stay relevant. If they fail to do so, there is a small chance that they will end their campaign, but I would say that is very unlikely for now as both should still hit 10% at the very least.
Finally, tonight may well see the end of Andrew Yang’s Presidential tilt I can’t see him getting over 5% while there isn’t one single state where he is polling above 15% and has a has a realistic chance of gaining delegates. He’s added a different dimension to the debate so far but I think his time in the spotlight is almost up…
Andrew Yang (Implied Probability: 0.6% / -1.5% (National Polling: 2% - 4%) (New Hampshire Polling: 3% - 4%)
Amy Klobuchar (Implied Probability: 2.8% / +1.5% (National Polling: 3% - 6%) (New Hampshire Polling: 7% - 14%)
Elizabeth Warren (Implied Probability: 4.0% / -2.1% (National Polling: 14% - 18%) (New Hampshire Polling: 10% - 12%)
Joe Biden (Implied Probability: 8.7% / -20.3% (National Polling: 17% - 28%) (New Hampshire Polling: 10% - 12%)
Pete Buttigieg (Implied Probability: 11.9% / +9.4% (National Polling: 6% - 10%) (New Hampshire Polling: 19% - 23%)
Michael Bloomberg (Implied Probability: 24.4% / +10.1% (National Polling: 9% - 15%) (New Hampshire Polling: 0% - 1%)
Bernie Sanders (Implied Probability: 39.7% / +1.6% (National Polling: 19% - 25%) (New Hampshire Polling: 27% - 30%)
Voting finally starts today in the Democratic Primary for the next US Presidential Candidate. I have been tracking this for over a year and there have been many false dawns and a few shock dropouts. There have been some significant changes since my last update in December.
I have always included the top seven candidates but unless Amy Klobuchar pulls off a huge shock in Iowa tonight, I think we are down to five genuine contenders. It is important to note that you must hit 15% of vote to get ant delegates whatsoever, so there is a chance that a high-profile candidate may withdraw if they fail to do so tonight.
We will learn a lot tonight about the relative strength of four of these five, Michael Bloomberg is the exception as he has decided not to campaign in the first four states.
The markets now have Bernie Sanders as the favourite ae he has enjoyed an incredible start to 2020 in polling terms. However, it becomes much more difficult for him after the first three states and I still believe Joe Biden should be the frontrunner.
I just want to highlight that I have always ranked the candidates by their implied probability from their betting odds, but again I have excluded Hillary Clinton (who is currently wedged between Amy Klobuchar and Andrew Yang) as she is not currently running.
This may be the last time I write an update in this format but I will decide that during the week as I hope to have another write up before the New Hampshire Primary on Tuesday, February 11th. Polling from Realclear and probablity from Betfair Exchange.
Amy Klobuchar (Implied Probability: 1.3% / -1.5% (National Polling: 3% - 7%) (Iowa Polling: 6% - 11%)
Klobuchar probably needs to break 15% tonight to remain competitive and stay in the race. Unfortunately for her, it doesn’t look likely now, and I think she may withdraw after tonight or after New Hampshire next Tuesday. She has had some moments during the race but never lived up to the hype and I think she will now look to throw her wight in behind a different moderate candidate.
Andrew Yang (Implied Probability: 2.1% / -1.0% (National Polling: 3% - 8%) (Iowa Polling: 3% - 5%)
This is my exact same update from last time:
He has hardly moved in polling or probability, but he has stuck in there, outpolling supposedly more serious candidates like Cory Booker and Tulsi Gabbard. I really can’t see him winning at this stage, but I am very, very curious as to where his eventual endorsement will go.
Pete Buttigieg (Implied Probability: 2.5% / -8.1% (National Polling: 6% - 7%) (Iowa Polling: 15% - 18%)
Buttigieg has dropped in both Iowa and New Hampshire polling since the last update in December. In December, I wrote that he didn’t have the national numbers to be a top tier candidate and would need to win at least one of Iowa or New Hampshire to gather the momentum required to win. That look less likely now he could even withdraw after New Hampshire if he fails to hit 15% in either of the first two.
Elizabeth Warren (Implied Probability: 6.1% / -10.0% (National Polling: 13% - 20%) (Iowa Polling: 13% - 21%)
Warren has continued to decline over the last month which leaves her quite far from the dizzy heights of early October. Her national and Iowa ranges are very competitive, and she can still win but it is looking less likely as she is clearly second to Bernie Sanders among the progressive membership of the Party. I do expect her to stay deep into the race though and some are suggesting she could ultimately be the compromise candidate.
Michael Bloomberg (Implied Probability: 14.3% / +4.8% (National Polling: 4% - 12%) (Iowa Polling: 0% - 1%)
It is very difficult to assess Bloomberg’s chances as we will get very little indication of his electability over the next few weeks until Super Tuesday on March 3rd. Bloomberg has unlimited funds, is aggressive in criticising Trump and has a wow factor from being a “real” successful, billionaire entrepreneur. He is much sharper than Joe Biden and the DNC may unite behind him if Biden falters. They have already changed debate rules that benefit him moving forward, coincidentally after he gave them the maximum permissible donation…
Joe Biden (Implied Probability: 29.0% / -2.7% (National Polling: 26% - 30%) (Iowa Polling: 15% - 25%)
The biggest threat to Biden is that one candidate wins both Iowa and New Hampshire and then he goes into the Caucus (February 22nd) and the South Carolina Primary (February 29th) trailing. When I last wrote in December, this looked unlikely, but now that Bernie Sanders has pulled ahead in both states, he looks under more pressure. An Iowa win and I believe he is the overwhelming favourite. A failure to win in any the first three and much of his support and many of his allies may evaporate…
Bernie Sanders (Implied Probability: 37.6% / +21.5% (National Polling: 19% - 27%) (Iowa Polling: 19% - 28%)
Sanders is now the bookies’ favourite but I believe he is being overestimated *if* and *until* he wins Iowa, which is basically neck and neck as things stand between him and Biden, with Warren and Buttigieg not too far behind.
He has the momentum, the movement and the people on the ground to win the nomination but he needs to use all three of these vital ingredients to win States now. If he fails to do, his campaign could still fizzle out to Biden or Bloomberg in the centre or get overtaken by Warren on the Left…
It’s been almost four months since I last wrote about the Democratic Presidential race. There have been dropouts, new entrants and major changes. Kamala Harris dropping out did come as a shock to many, myself included, but it was clear that her campaign was on the wane and her chances of winning the nomination were slim.
Michael Bloomberg has finally entered the race and may prove to be a formidable candidate, especially if gets a chance to debate in the 7th Democratic Debate on January 14th (for which the qualifying criteria has not yet been released by the Democratic National Convention).
So far in these updates, I have focused on the national polling from Realclear Politics available here and the implied odds probability from Betfair Exchange here . I will continue to use these as I believe this lends consistency and allows a clear way to track progress and change in individual candidate’s campaigns and momentum.
However, I will now also reference individual state polling, also from Realclear, when I dig down deeper into each candidate’s update below. The early state polling for places like Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada is a valuable resource that can help paint a broader, yet more accurate picture, of the candidate’s potential success.
I just want to highlight that I have always ranked the candidates by their implied probability from their betting odds, but I have in this case excluded Hillary Clinton (who is currently wedged between Andrew Yang and Michael Bloomberg) as she is not currently running.
Amy Klobuchar (Implied Probability: 2.8% / NEW (Polling 2% - 5%):
Klobuchar has never yet figured in the top seven but has benefited from qualifying for the 6th debate which took place last night on the 19th of December. By many accounts, she was also the strongest performer of the night. It would be the perfect time to get a campaign boost and with a strong showing in the 7th debate, she could potentially be a serious contender for the Iowa caucus on Monday, February 3rd.
Andrew Yang (Implied Probability: 3.1% / -0.6% (Polling 2% - 6%):
He has hardly moved in polling or probability, but he has stuck in there, outpolling supposedly more serious candidates like Cory Booker and Tulsi Gabbard. I really can’t see him winning at this stage, but I am very, very curious as to where his eventual endorsement will go.
Michael Bloomberg (Implied Probability: 9.5% / NEW (Polling 3% - 7%):
A big political beast who has entered the race quite late on but has immediately jumped into 5th favourite. A billionaire and a two-term Mayor of New York, he has massive name recognition and may be seen as a counterweight to the more radical left-wing candidates like Sanders and Warren, but with experience and a professionalism that Buttigieg and Biden struggle with respectively.
As I mentioned in the summary, he needs to get into the 7th debate but if he manages to and does well, I believe he can win the nomination.
Pete Buttigieg (Implied Probability: 10.6% / +5% (Polling 5% - 13%):
Buttigieg is the perfect candidate to illustrate the point that national polling alone is not enough to get the full picture of a candidate’s prospects. He very rarely polls above 10% nationally (the 13% poll I have referenced in his polling range is a bit of an outlier). However, he currently leads in Iowa polling and is second in New Hampshire, which has its primary on February 11th.
I think he needs to win one of these two. Winning an early state contest counts for an awful lot but coming second doesn’t, even if the votes are basically designated proportionally. Without an early win, I fear his campaign will flounder.
Elizabeth Warren (Implied Probability: 16.1% / -15.6% (Polling 12% - 18%):
Warren has had a tough four months since my last update on the race. Warren has definitely struggled in that period. In late August, she was the markets’ clear favourite to win. Since then, her chances have halved while she has dropped from 1st to 3rd favourite. That said, her polling range has only marginally decreased from 14% - 20% to 12% to 18%.
She has still had some good moments in debates and stump speeches, but she struggled badly with the enhanced media scrutiny and attacks from rivals that come with being the frontrunner. Without that added pressure, she may again start to slowly creep up in polling.
Bernie Sanders (Implied Probability: 16.1% / +2.9% (Polling 13% - 25%):
Sanders had a heart attack on October 4th. In the aftermath it felt to many that this was effectively the end of his campaign. It was assumed that this would further add to the perception of him being too old and fragile to be the President of the United States.
However, soon after, he procured the endorsement so Congresswomen Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez, Rashida Tlaib and Ilhan Omar and has since campaigned with vim and a vigour that has defied his critics. He is second in Iowa and leading in New Hampshire, though is well behind Joe Biden in both Nevada and South Carolina.
If he comprehensively defeats Warren in each of these four states, she may withdraw and could perhaps endorse him. This isn’t likely yet but may be his best chance of catching Joe Biden.
Joe Biden (Implied Probability: 31.7% / +7.3% (Polling 23% - 32%):
Biden is back on top in terms of betting as well as polling (which he has led from day one). I am beginning to be a bit more bullish on his chances and think a ~30% implied probability is a bit too low. Yes, he makes gaffes and isn’t a very slick debater but he has constantly polled first and there is no evidence that this will fall drastically.
His biggest threat is that one candidate wins both Iowa and New Hampshire and then he goes into the Caucus (February 22nd) and the South Carolina Primary (February 29th) trailing. Even if that was the case, he has a large lead in both currently and this would not be a fatal blow. This is the first update where I genuinely see him as not only the current leader but also as the candidate who indisputably has the best chance of winning the Democratic nomination.
I had intended to write this in the immediate aftermath of the second round of the Democratic Debates, hosted by CNN, which took place on July 30th and 31st. However, I got a little distracted by summer and other events which means the last update is now almost two months old.
There was serious movement in that update where the field went from having two main frontrunners in Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders to flattening out to five serious candidates, with Warren, Harris and Buttigieg joining. That first set of debates were very damaging for Biden who looked his age and was hammered by Kamala Harris (in what was almost certainly a pre-meditated attack) on his actions on race in the past.
What started then and has continued now is the rise and rise of Elizabeth Warren in the betting markets and polls. In this collection of blogs, I have always ranked by the implied odds from the betting markets which has been at considerable variance with the raw data from the polls. Warren has risen in both and is now basically joint second in the polls with Bernie Sanders (though individual polls very greatly) while she is now the bookies’ favourite after two very strong debate performances.
The next set of debates are set for September 11th and 12th and I will be closely following these as, so far, only ten candidates have qualified so there should be more speaking time and some serious rises and falls, based on performance.
Cory Booker (Implied Probability: 2% / NEW (Polling 1% - 4%):
Cory Booker has down well in the debates without yet getting the rewards in the polls. I still believe he can have his “time” with the media, and I can easily see him move into the low double digits with a break performance and become a serious contender.
It hasn’t happened for him yet but as the race moves forward and candidates drop out, it’s much better to get the momentum later on. He may also be deemed as an attractive unity candidate by the Democratic Party.
I think he offers a lot more value than Harris, who I would place him in the same grouping as, and I think his rise may come at her expense later on.
Andrew Yang (Implied Probability: 3.7% / -0.1% (Polling 1% - 3%):
Andrew Yang baffles me every time I write about him. He is incredibly stable and consistent with hardly any change in his polling or odds. He didn’t have a particularly good second debate and while he may not drop out of the top seven after the third round, I really can’t see him break the top five.
Pete Buttigieg (Implied Probability: 5.6% / -6.3% (Polling 3% - 8%):
He’s dropped a place; his polling is lower, and his odds are longer but none of this is fatal to Buttigieg’s chances. He’s definitely in a bit of a lull and there are criticisms that he is more style than substance but, on the other hand, I do think he can benefit from staying in the race, building his policy platform and communicating that to the Democratic electorate as the field narrows and each candidate gets more screen and debate time.
Kamala Harris (Implied Probability: 11.4% / -11.3%) (Polling 5% - 8%):
Harris had a fantastic first debate which propelled her to the top of the pile but then fell flat in the second debate which has seen her fall back. I think she is a little flat and doesn’t deliver consistently when the cameras are on her.
Harris can win the candidature and I expect her to last quite far into the process but must find that spark needed to really connect with a large part of the Democratic electorate as she is still not breaking 10% in any of the recent polls.
Bernie Sanders (Implied Probability: 13.2% / +2.6%) (Polling 10% - 20%):
Sanders is holding steady in second with Elizabeth Warren in joint second but, since late April at least, he has been on the wane while her star has risen.
Their combined vote is enough to overtake Biden but it remains to be seen if they will continue to gradually expand the Left proportion or eventually turn on each other.
Joe Biden (Implied Probability: 24.4% / +4.0%) (Polling 19% - 33%):
Biden recovered well in the second debate and despite being attacked from everywhere, he was able to parry off most the attacks.
He remains well ahead in the polling, though his lead is no longer insurmountable. It would be foolish to discount him and if the field below him continue to be divided quite evenly then he could easily do well in the early states and look like a presidential candidate in waiting.
Equally, he could continue to drop further gaffes and slowly fade away…
Elizabeth Warren (Implied Probability: 31.7% / +15.6%) (Polling 14% - 20%):
Warren is riding on the coattails of two great debate performances and is probably now just slightly ahead of Sanders and there is a good chance she consolidates the Left vote and then looks to eclipse Biden in the polls.
Even though she eventually endorsed Clinton in 2016, she is probably too far to the Left for many mainstream Democrats who may be happy to have her in the race now to split the vote between her and Sanders but who may then work against the eventual champion of that side of the party.
Having said that, if she performs well in the third debate, now that she has a much higher profile and may be the target of more attacks from across the field, then I believe she can eclipse both Sanders and Biden and become the frontrunner.
*Polling date taken from here
A lot has changed since the last update. There have been a few further new entrants, candidate’s campaigns have slowly waned while others are finally gaining momentum.
However, this week has been dominated by the first two Presidential debates, which took place over two nights on Wednesday and Thursday of this week, with ten candidates taking part in each.
These debates had plenty of talking points and have certainly moved the dial on a number of candidates. In each of the two debates, female candidates dominated while the more established, incumbent runners took some serious flak.
This has led to some dramatic changes in the rankings while one of the former favourites, Beto O’ Rourke has fallen out of the top seven and it looks like time is a serious contender has come to an end.
Furthermore, it has flattened out the race from two main contenders (Biden and Bernie) leading the way to what currently looks like a very competitive five way race…
Tulsi Gabbard (Implied Probability: 2.9% / NEW (Polling 1% -3%):
In my view, Tulsi Gabbard has always been an exciting, radical candidate with many traditionally contrarians American foreign policy views that are becoming more mainstream as the party drifts to the Left. She was one of the stars of the first night of the debate and had one of the highlights of either night when she lectured Tim Ryan on the America’s continued involvement in Afghanistan. She backed Bernie Sanders in 2016 and I think she will ultimately end up being a high profile endorsement of his again as we reach the competitive end of the campaign.
Andrew Yang (Implied Probability: 3.8% / -1.3%) (Polling: 1% - 2%):
I wrote in the last update that;
“Yang has been remarkably consistent over the last six weeks. Despite polling on average at 1% and in 11th place, he remains in sixth place in the probability rankings. He needs to be do more and be heard by a larger proportion of the electorate if he is going to kick on from here.”
This remains the case and I am now very surprised that he has managed to stay in the top seven as he hasn’t really managed to further his audience. He did manage to pitch his key policy of a universal basic income in the debate, though I don’t think it has captivated the public imagination.
Bernie Sanders (Implied Probability: 10.6% / -9.2%) (Polling 13% - 27%):
It’s been a strange lull in the campaign for Bernie Sanders where he hasn’t had any major blunders but it’s impossible to shake the notion that his star has waned slightly. This is also reflected in the polling where instead of consistently polling second, he is now behind Warren in about half of the polls. It’s the most over rated piece of analysis on the Democratic race but it’s impossible not to ask why Bernie in particular, when you can get Bernie’s policies from about 3 or 4 other younger, fresher candidates who are less belligerent against the parties’ establishment?
Pete Buttigieg (Implied Probability: 11.9% / +3.6%) (Polling 4% - 9%):
Buttigieg has slowly and steadily increased his polling and is now undoubtedly a top tier candidate. That said, he didn’t particularly shine in the second debate (which was definitely the more competitive of the two) and he may need to launch a few policies in the short term to not only maintain the growth but also to re-capture some of the earlier excitement around his candidature.
Elizabeth Warren (Implied Probability: 16.1% / +8.4%) (Polling 7% -19%):
Warren has arrived in a big way. She was already rising in the polls due to a number of exciting policies and a slicker, more authentic approach to the media but she then dominated the first debate and looked like a genuine, potential president. While I was previously sceptical, I now believe she can win and, for the first time, is now a serious, credible alternative to Bernie Sanders for many on the Left in Party.
Joe Biden (Implied Probability: 20.4% / -6.3%) (Polling 25% -38%):
Biden still has a massive lead in the polling (though his numbers will probably take a hit following this performance) but he looked rattled at points in the second debate and he was skewered by Kamala Harris when she turned on him and confronted him on his record on bussing earlier in his career. He did bite back that he has always tried to protect people and not a prosecutor but it was lost in the moment and it will now be interesting to see if he can reclaim the top spot or we’re already reached, and passed, peak Biden.
Kamala Harris (Implied Probability: 22.7% / +14.2%) (Polling 5% - 8%):
Harris has jumped up two places to take the lead in the betting. This is mainly based on her strong performance last night though she has always been seen as a very strong candidate by many in the press. I think she is much more suited to questioning and debating then to stump speeches (where she sometimes fails to capture the crowd) and I imagine her campaign team are now wracking their brains trying to think of ways to build on her momentum between now and the next set of debates on CNN. I think this may include a number of interviews on the main talk shows that focus on her childhood and formative years in order to connect further with the wider electorate.
*Polling date taken from here
The biggest change since my last update has been Joe Biden entering the race. He has more than doubled his chances of being the next Democratic Presidential Candidate and six of the other seven candidates
Beto O’ Rourke (Implied Probability: 4.8% / -9.9%) (Polling 3% -6%):
I think O' Rourke's star has truly waned now. In the last update six weeks ago, I claimed that Pete Buttigieg offered a more dynamic, compelling alternative for Democratic voters looking for a fresh candidate who could appeal to a vast swathe of the Party's voters. When I googled O' Rourke today, the only headlines he had generated recently were articles about his regret over his Vanity Fair campaign launch. I think there is every chance he drops out of the top seven in the next few months.
Andrew Yang (Implied Probability: 5.1% / -0.2%) (Polling: 1% - 2%):
Yang has been remarkably consistent over the last six weeks. Despite polling on average at 1% and in 11th place, he remains in sixth place in the probability rankings. He needs to be do do more and be heard by a larger proportion of the electorate if he is going to kick on from here.
Elizabeth Warren (Implied Probability: 7.7% / +4.3%) (Polling 5% - 12%):
Apart from Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren has had the best time of it among the Presidential hopefuls since the last update. She has more than doubled her chances, moved up two places and her polling has increased significantly. I have said for a while that, despite some very interesting and innovative policy launches, she needed momentum. Warren's campaign now seems to have sparked a little and it will be interesting to follow if she can close the gap on Bernie Sanders and challenge him for the champion of the progressive side of the party.
Pete Buttigieg (Implied Probability: 8.3% / -2.8%) (Polling 2% - 10%):
It appears as if Buttigeig is in this campaign for the long haul. He needs to continue to build his voter recognition levels and launch more policies. He is definitely focusing on the former and in the last three days alone, he appeared on Jimmy Fallon and Stephen Colbert. I personally found this appearance a little cringey but Jimmy Fallon is definitely an influential media star for young, liberal voters in the United States. I do think he can do quite well in the debates if he makes it to them in a strong position but he'll need more substance to keep the momentum until then.
Kamala Harris (Implied Probability: 14.7% / -6.1%) (Polling 5% -10%):
The second update in a row where Harris has dropped by a place. In my view, third looks about right for her at the moment. Harris is certainly a very strong candidate but can not be currently classed in the category as Bernie Sanders, yet alone Joe Biden. The upper end of her polling is similar to Buttigieg and Warren and it is in this second tier of candidates she should currently reside. She has recently started to work on her appeal to voters on the Left and she still has the potential to win, especially if she can take her home state California early on.
Bernie Sanders (Implied Probability: 19.6% / -1.7%) (Polling 11% -25%):
Sanders has continue to campaign well though last time my concern for his chances was "has had everything go right for him so far and avoided any major controversies but still never polls above Joe Biden". This was before Biden had formally entered the race. Now that he has, the gap has increased significantly and Sanders will have to lift his game even higher. He is a good speaker though and once he sees off the challenge from Warren on the left he may be able to frame it as Hillary 2.0 versus the Left.
Joe Biden (Implied Probability: 26.7% / +14.2%) (Polling 33% - 46%):
Biden is now the clear front-runner in almost every category. Polling, betting, endorsements and name recognition. In the last update, he was beginning to waver a little and I did wonder whether he would decide it wasn't worth it at all. However, he recovered from this slight flounder and he now has every chance of taking on Donald Trump in 2020. There is still an expectation that he may commit a few more gaffes and could throw it away but for now, the candidacy is Joe Biden's to lose...
*Polling date taken from here
There have been some significant changes since my last article a month ago. We have seen the 6th favourite at that time, Sherrod Brown, declare he is not running while Joe Biden has recently come under serious pressure for allegations of inappropriate touching, initially from Lucy Flores while six other women have since almost made claims.
At the suggestion of a previous reader I am going to add their performance from the most recent opinion polls (using this link for the polling data) to give a little more context and depth. This is very relevant for a candidate like Kamala Harris who has been the frontrunner, or very close to it, in the betting markets for quite some time without ever topping a poll.
Elizabeth Warren (Implied Probability: 3.6% / -1.4%) (Polling: 4% - 8%):
Warren’s campaign is still struggling to come to life. She has tried to embrace a few radical ideas recently like backing moves to dissemble America’s tech giants into smaller companies. I really think she is in serious danger of being a nearly-ran. While the two candidates directly above her have much chance of dropping out of the top seven by next month, they have come from nowhere and are causing a stir. The challenge for Warren is that she has had every advantage starting off her campaign but is now barely making headlines.
Andrew Yang (Implied Probability: 5.3% / New) (Polling: 1% - 2%):
I know very little about Andrew Yang but his campaign and approach have been very sleek and well timed. He is certainly targeting younger, more radical voters and if he can increase his polling slightly, he could make a stir in the early debates. However, I ultimately don’t think he will be a top tier contender and will be surprised if he stays in the top seven.
Pete Buttigieg (Implied Probability: 11.1% / New) (Polling 1% - 4%):
The most interesting candidate in the field. Yes, I am slightly biased as his paternal ancestors hail from my current home, Malta, but he has so many facets to his candidacy. He is a gay Afghanistan veteran, Harvard and Oxford graduate who speaks seven languages. He is currently mayor of South Bend, Indiana. I highly recommend watching this short profile of him from the Tonight Show. I will be following him closely as, in my opinion, he is a much more interesting character than Beto O’ Rourke who also represents the “fresh face” of the Democratic Party’s 2020 candidates.
Joe Biden (Implied Probability: 12.5% / -3.6%) (Polling 26% - 33%):
Biden has had a horrific week for reasons I’ve mentioned already. He still hasn’t officially announced his intention to run but that is seen to be one of American politics’ worst kept secrets. However, these allegations will certainly have been food for thought for him and his advisors. He’ll probably have to try and reverse the damage in the next few weeks before announcing as I am certain he will not want to kick off his campaign in this cloud of controversy. There also still a small chance he decides it’s simply not worth running at all…
Beto O’ Rourke (Implied Probability: 14.7% / No Change) (Polling 5% -12%):
Since Beto announced his intention to run on the 14th of March he has managed to raise a significant amount without really exploding out of the tracks. There have been criticisms of the blandness of his key messages and I do wonder if he will really make his mark in the business end of this campaign. Incredibly, he is the exact same odds as he was a month, which is even more surprising given the other major swings.
Kamala Harris (Implied Probability: 20.8% / -0.9%) (Polling 8% -12%):
She has fallen one place to second, but Harris is a big beast who many believe will go all the way. One of her major advantages is that her home state, California, has moved earlier in the campaign from June to March. If I was her campaign manager, I would still be slightly concerned by her polling numbers which are not really ticking upwards. However, I would still not bet against her and I think she will be there or thereabouts at the business end of proceedings.
Bernie Sanders (Implied Probability: 21.3% / +4.6%) (Polling 18% - 26%):
The bookies have him favourite and I think I agree. My one concern is that he has had everything go right for him so far and avoided any major controversies but still never polls above Joe Biden. However, he has raised the most funds, has a very strong online presence and has managed to prevent Elizabeth Warren eating into his vote (at the outset many progressives feared that if they both ran it would split the progressive vote). I have long backed Sanders and have grown more confident over the last month, but his age is such a massive disadvantage and I do worry he could struggle against younger candidates in the early primaries, especially in California. On the flip side if he starts strongly, and Biden’s star continues to wane, he could convince the Party that the electorate have moved to the left and it would be fatal not to support his candidacy for a second time.
Notable Others: It would be foolish to discount Cory Booker (3.3%)(2% - 4%), Tulsi Gabbard (2.9%)(1%) or Amy Klobuchar (2.5%)(1% - 3%) yet but Klobuchar in particular has dropped significantly. There are other candidates, but they aren’t making the impact required to be mentioned this time.
This is the first in a new series of articles I'm going to run in the race to become the Democratic 2020 Presidential candidate. I will rank the top seven candidates in order of implied probability from Betfair Exchange. Implied probability gives the % chance of an event occurring based on the odds. I prefer using the exchange as it is more fluid and reflects changes more accurately.
I will try to write a new article quite regularly (but at least thirty days apart) and I will highlight how the candidates have moved both positionally and from a probability perspective. To keep it exciting I'll write from least to most likely to become the 2020 Democratic Presidential candidate. Despite the fact that more than 10 candidates have already announced, with another ten or so actively exploring, I will keep it at the top seven so I can focus more on each one. Naturally, the candidates with the highest percentage will dominate the majority of the post. When the race gets close to the finale, the number of candidates will have whittled down to a handful but for now it is a massively open and competitive field.
7: Elizabeth Warren (5%):
Warren announced her campaign on February 9th. She was one of the first Democratic heavyweights to do it and it was expected she would rapidly become one of the favourites, competing with Bernie Sanders on the progressive side of the party. However, it simply hasn't happened for Warren so far. She doesn't seem to have the charisma on the campaign trail and if she doesn't gain some momentum soon, this once very promising campaign is set to fail before it ever really began.
6: Sherrod Brown (5.1%)
The sixty-six year old Ohio Senator was one of Bernie Sanders' strongest allies in the Senate but ultimately endorsed Hillary Clinton in 2016. He is seen as a potential unity candidate but hasn't announced if he will run yet. He is currently finishing his "Dignity of Work" tour which has seen him visit many of the most important early primary and caucus states.
5: Amy Klobuchar (5.9%)
The Minnesota Senator announced she would run a day after Elizabeth Warren on February 10th. She is seen as a tough, no-nonsense candidate who could garner the support of the Democratic Party elites while being competitive in "purple" states like her own Minnesota. There have been accusations of bullying from former members of her staff which may haunt her moving forward.
4: Beto O'Rourke (14.7%)
At the moment we have a "Big Four" in terms of probability. Beto is one of the rising stars of the party. Up until a few weeks ago he was the favourite but his delay in announcing his bid has been seen by some as indecision after a meteoric rise in profile following a very close defeat to Ted Cruz for a Texas Senate seat in the November midterms. If he does announce and gathers some momentum, he could easily become the front-runner.
3: Joe Biden (16.1%)
The two-time Democratic Vice President is loved by many on the Democratic side and even now before he has announced if he will run or not, leads almost every poll with approximately 25% to 35% of the votes. Though he is another candidate who could become the front-runner with a well-executed announcement, there is a still a significant chance he'll decide it isn't for him...
2: Bernie Sanders (16.7%)
To many, Bernie Sanders should have been the candidate to take on, and beat, Donald Trump in 2016. However, that campaign, and the grassroots success it had has undoubtedly pulled the party to the Left. The question is now whether Bernie Sanders is still the candidate that best represents democratic socialism in the United States in 2019 and 2020. His campaign has started well with large crowds and very impressive fundraising but it still remains to be seen whether his chance of being President of the United States has passed.
1: Kamala Harris (21.7%)
The front-runner. A Senator from California, she also served as the state's Attorney General from 2011 to 2017. She has almost everything going for her. A woman of mixed background, she embodies the diversity that many in the party want to see come to the fore, in direct contrast to candidates like Biden and Sanders. She was also very impressive in the Senate Hearing for Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh. The key questions that remain are can she compete on the campaign trail and is she progressive enough for the Democratic Party in 2020?
Notable Others: Cory Booker(4.8%) is very unlucky to miss out though having announced on Feb 1st, he will need to get moving up the chart soon. Tulsi Gabbard (4.2%) is an interesting candidate from Hawaii and who is very anti-war but I will be very surprised if she ever really becomes a key candidate in this race.