 Before I sat down to write these predictions, I was not too excited about what 2020 had to offer in terms of political events and potential outcomes.
Thankfully, when quickly I began to realise that there is a lot to look forward to and the twelve months ahead could be a watershed year in many ways. I realise that my projections can often be a little bit biased towards the Left but I think I have managed to avoid doing so here, with the exception of Bernie Sanders as my pick for the Democratic Presidential Candidate. In general, I actually see a relatively calm year and my previous fears of a massive global downturn have substantially subsided, particularly for 2020. There are certainly serious structural deficits in the global economy but they seem to be further from many minds than they even were this time last year. Finally, I do see a further increase in “Green” politics across the planet. With the exception of a firm prediction for the Irish Green Party, I have not quantified this in any 2020 outcome as I see it more as a guiding theme that will impact and aid certain parties and figures in the contests discussed below. Bernie Sanders to win the Democratic Presidential Nomination I predicted that Bernie Sanders will be the next American President for almost two years now. I am not going to change it as this late juncture. Objectively, looking at all the polling evidence, he is only the second favourite as things stand behind Joe Biden. However, I believe he has consolidated second place and is best positioned to challenge Biden while also capturing the hearts minds of both Democratic voters and the wider American electorate. That said, he probably does need to win at least two of the early states (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina) to win so there should be further clarity on this prediction quite early in the year. Democrats to Win the American Presidential Election This is not an easy call to make at all. In fact, without knowing the Democratic nominee it may be a pointless endeavour. However, I still believe that Donald Trump will not be able to hold enough of the swing states required to repeat his 2016 victory. I can see the Democrats taking back at least three of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin and Indiana while Florida and Arizona could also become competitive. Fine Gael to win Most Seats in next Irish General Election The first of two Irish General Election predictions that are slightly hedged. Just like in the US Presidential Election, it is a toss-up between Fine Gael and Fianna Fail for who will finish with the Most Seats and lead the next Government. I have gone with Fine Gael for Most Seats as I believe on the day enough people will decide that they are happy enough with the status quo to return Fine Gael with the most seats. Michael Martin Next Taoiseach after next Irish General Election However, on the other side of this hedge, there is a lot of discontent with the Fine Gael leadership and they will have very few options for coalition partners if the results are as tight as the current polls suggest. Martin is a very shrewd political operator and may be able to cobble together a coalition involving the Greens, Labour and a smattering of Independents if the numbers are there to lead. The Irish Greens to (at least) Double Seats to 6 The Greens are certainly a party on the rise again in Ireland. They only won two seats in the 2016 election but their ranks have been bolstered after Joe O’Brien’s by-election win in Dublin Fingal. Further seat gains will not be easily come by but I can still see them double their current number to at least six as I believe they will be relatively transfer-friendly across the political spectrum. Sinn Fein to (buck national trend?) Hold Two Seats in Louth Sinn Fein currently holds 22 seats in the Dail having lost two TDs in Peader Toibin and Carol Nolan before Mark Ward won the Dublin Mid-West by-election in November 2019. It will be extremely difficult for Sinn Fein to make gains or even hold their current numbers given their recent electoral performances and current national polling. However, I can see Louth being a rare bright spot as I think even with a first preference vote share drop, they still have a better chance of holding on to two seats than Fine Gael do, given the local political dynamics at play. As my home constituency, I will be following it closely as we approach the 2020 Irish General Election. A Ministry of all Ireland/Island Affairs to be Created Probably my most speculative call for 2020. Irrespective of whether Fine Gael or Fianna Fail lead the next government, I think there is a decent chance a new ministry is created that has a further all-island element. It may not explicitly mention Irish Unity, but the intention will be clear. No Comprehensive Trade Deal Reached Between Britain and EU Boris Johnson has 364 days to strike a trade deal with the European Union before the transition period ends on January 1st, 2021. I don’t believe he’ll manage to do so and there will almost certainly be a further extension or a contingency plan put in place to avoid Britain and the EU trading on WTO terms from that date forward. Keir Starmer next Labour Leader I don’t think Keir Starmer is the preferred candidate for any major faction of the British Labour Party. More importantly, though, I don’t think there are many groups that he has really isolated. I think he has the ability to unsettle Boris Johnson at the dispatch box and he may just be able to unite the party in a coherent opposition. Sadiq Khan to be next London Mayor Sadiq Khan winning the 2020 London Mayoral Election may be a rare electoral bright spot for the Labour Party in recent times. He will face some opposition from the Liberal Democrats, the Greens and Rory Stewart but I expect him to hold on and win a second term. No Second Scottish Independence Referendum in 2020 If I was Scottish it would make my blood boil but there simply won't be a second Scottish Independence Referendum this year because the English, specifically the English Conservatives, won't allow it. When Westminster refuses to grant a Section 30 to Holyrood Parliament then what options will the Scottish Government have? They may have some further leverage and legitimacy if the SNP win a majority in 2021, but until then I simply can't see Boris and Cummings allowing a risky distraction (in their eyes) like another referendum. DUP to Win Most Seats if Stormont Election Held We should know relatively early in the New Year if there will indeed be a 2020 Stormont Election. If an election does come to pass I expect the DUP to win the Most Seats, though they will return with a reduced number of MLAs. This will partly be down to the large number of vulnerable Sinn Fein MLAs who scraped in on the last seat in the 2017 Assembly Election. Benjamin Netanyahu Resigns or is Forced Out as Likud Leader My final prediction for 2020 is that Benjamin Netanyahu resigns or is forced out as Likud leader and steps away from frontline Israeli politics. Between corruption cases, a third General Election in a year and internal party challengers, surely his time at the top will come to an end in 2020.
Comments
 I got quite a lot wrong in 2019. I actually can’t even really put all the errors down to one single thematic error. I think I was probably a little too pessimistic in terms of where the economy would be, while I also envisaged less movement in British Politics.
Paradoxically, I also predicted we’d have an Irish General Election by now, which has been pushed back into next year. Overall, it wasn’t my best effort at predictions but it has given me plenty of food for thought as I try and be a little bit more successful looking at the year ahead. Beginning of a serious global economic downturn There have been many threats to the global economy in 2019 and, at times, it did look like 2019 could be the year that the ten year bull run ended truly ended. However, this simply wasn’t the case. The markets ended the year quite strongly and most people, thankfully, didn’t experience the economic and financial woes I feared a global recession would bring about. Brexit to happen This was a strange one to call. In legal terms, Britain remains a member of the European Union as we start 2020, so I was wrong. However, Boris Johnson’s massive majority won on December 12th meant that in many people’s minds, Brexit has been a foregone conclusion since. The actual exit date will be January 31st at the very latest though the transition period agreed means that very little will change until January 1st, 2021. No British General Election What can I say about this one? I was just wrong. I thought Theresa May would somehow get Brexit over the line, hang on and try and avoid having an election until she could get some initiative back on her domestic agenda. I was wrong on all three fronts... Theresa May to be Prime Minister and Jeremy Corbyn still to be Leader of the Opposition on January 1st 2020 Theresa May is long gone and while Jeremy Corbyn is staying in place until a new Labour leader is elected, it’s fair to say I called this one badly too. Irish General Election to take place It threatened at times and this was definitely a contrarian view on January 1st 2019. However, the majority were correct and the Fine Gael - Fianna Fail Confidence and Supply Agreement survived another year. There is very little doubt that there will be an election in 2020. Trump to still be President on Jan 1st 2020 even if impeached… I called this one correctly. I felt he could be impeached but believed he would not resign and would fight all the way. I’ll be making a few 2020 predictions in American politics so I wont delve too deeply now. No Northern Ireland Assembly I simply couldn’t see it getting back up and running in 2019. As I sit here writing this on January 1st, Simon Coveney is again travelling to Belfast to try and get the parties to agree on on a dela to get Stormont back up and running. If they don’t agree to do so by January 13th, the Northern Ireland Secretary, Julian Smith, has stated he will call an election. Arlene Foster to be replaced as DUP Leader Arlene Foster has survived as the DUP leader but she has overseen one of their worst ever years and I can’t really see how her leadership continues for much longer. Her leadership isn’t quite as hollow as Jeremy Corbyn’s but she must be quite close to being put out of her misery. Far-right gains to be disappointing in EU Parliamentary Elections This may be my happiest correct prediction. The far-right did make gains but they have not gained control of the EU Parliament and their influence has only slightly increased. There have been many gains for the far right across the globe in recent years and, unfortunately, it is still too early to decide if they have reached their high tide of influence. Social Democrats to win the Most Seats in Danish General Election The Social Democrats won the Most Seats in the June 2019 General Election and their leader, Mette Frederiksen became the Prime Minister. A reminder that the European Social Democrats haven’t gone away you know… Socialist Party to win the Most Seats in Portuguese General Election The Socialist Party increased their share of the popular vote from 32% to 36% and gained a further 22 seats for a very impressive electoral performance. Portugal is the beacon of hope for socialism in Europe currently...  I reviewed my 2018 predictions here yesterday. I had a mixed bag in terms of success, but it really did give me some food for thought looking at the year ahead. It has been a year of some drama but on reflection, particularly in Ireland and Britain, it does feel like we’ve experienced a holding period. A major player in this has been Theresa May who has pushed every single major Brexit decision as far out as possible, the latest example was her delay of the Meaningful Vote to the week of January 14th. I think 2019 will be a year of events and drama with no road left for delay or obfuscation.
Beginning of a serious global economic downturn 2018 was still a good year for economic growth despite the growing uncertainty and pockets of geopolitical turmoil across the globe. The growth projections for 2019 are still mostly positive but these can quickly change direction. While I am not going as far as predicting the global economy contracts next year, I think by the end of the year it will be evident the current cycle has reached the end of its growth trajectory. This should mean the financial markets face another tough year and could place further pressure on incumbent Western governments though I think this will become more of a factor in 2020. Brexit to happen I do not think Brexit will be reversed. Firstly, in my opinion, there is less than a 50% chance that there is a People’s Vote and even if there is the outcome is far from certain. What I am now less reluctant to confidently predict is that Brexit takes place on March 31st, 2019, despite previously adding it to my Political Punts. It seems increasingly likely that there will need to be an extension to Article 50 to ensure a deal can be gotten over the line in Westminster. The issue with this is that so far, the EU have said this is only possible in the case of a General Election or a Second Referendum. No British General Election I don’t envisage a General Election in Britain next year. I can’t see the Tories losing a Confidence Vote and I also don’t believe Theresa May would be foolish enough to call another snap election, given her government’s atrocious performance in the run up to the last one. Yes, the Conservatives currently lead in at least half of the polls but as she will probably be leader until December 2019 (given she won the Conservative Leadership Confidence Vote) I don’t believe the party will want to contest another election. Theresa May to be Prime Minister and Jeremy Corbyn still to be Leader of the Opposition on January 1st 2020 Since the last General Election in June 2017, British politics has been in an almost constant state of low intensity chaos. I do expect this to continue post Brexit but unlike many others I see many of the same figures involved at the end of year as are now. This prediction flows from the previous one. Firstly, without a General Election it is less likely that there are party leader changes in general. Furthermore, Theresa May has just won a Conservative Leadership Confidence Vote. This does not mean it is impossible to dislodge her as a coordinated mass resignation by some of her senior cabinet members could also be deadly however as many of them are jockeying for next leader, it is less likely they will work together. Finally, I think Jeremy Corbyn will still be Labour leader as the majority of the membership still believe in his domestic policies and that he can win the next election. The biggest threat to his continued supremacy is a membership revolt over a Second Brexit Referendum or if Labour back the Conservatives Brexit deal. I think this will be avoided and that I’ll be making predictions about both May and Corbyn’s respective years ahead next December. Irish General Election to take place Fine Gael and Fianna Fail have both recently agreed to extend the Confidence and Supply agreement to Summer 2020 so this is a contrarian position to take as the markets do not envisage a Dail election next year. However, I really think both parties are eyeing up the right time to force an election with the caveat that they will try and spin it to the being the fault of the other. Fine Gael to win most seats, just… Fine Gael have finished every single opinion poll in first place in 2018 as can be seen here. The economy is still buoyant and despite crises in both housing and health, there is still a feel-good factor in the Republic as the pain of the financial crisis recedes into a distant memory for many. However, this a double-edged sword for Fine Gael as many of the Irish electorate still have Fianna Fail hardwired into their DNA. I got a shock when the last poll of 2018 only had 2% between the parties. I do not think Leo Varadkar is a good campaigner and if the gap is this low at the start of the campaign it could be a very fine margin of victory for Fine Gael. Trump to still be President on Jan 1st 2020 even if impeached… This is quite straightforward. I believe Donald Trump will still be President this time next year. I do not believe the Mueller investigation will uncover enough to force him to resign or lead to a criminal conviction. It is less clear whether he will be impeached by the now Democratic held Congress as they do not take control until January however I am confident the Senate will not vote by the 2/3 majority needed to remove him from office. An impeachment in itself would typically be enough to force a resignation but I don’t believe Donald Trump would be one to acquiesce to political norms. No Northern Ireland Assembly I am beginning to think the era of the Northern Ireland Assembly has passed. There are too many immovable barriers to getting it back in session. I also now think that the DUP sees its home at Westminster while Sinn Fein believes its future lies in Dublin. It is simply the next step in the ever-growing political polarization of Northern Ireland. Peace but division… Arlene Foster to be replaced as DUP Leader Arlene Foster has had a pretty miserable year between the ongoing RHI investigation leading to further embarrassment as well as the Conservative government backtracking on several commitments regarding the Irish backstop. Ultimately, there will be a Brexit deal and it will probably have to involve some slight compromise from the DUP. I envisage Arlene Foster being the scapegoat for this and being replaced by one the 10 DUP MPs, with Nigel Dodds the most likely next leader. Far-right gains to be disappointing in EU Parliamentary Elections They may win a few more seats but it won’t be some massive breakthrough. With the exception perhaps of Italy, the EU countries where the far-right is strongest already did quite well in the last EU Parliamentary elections in 2014. I expect the media to whip up a frenzy beforehand and Matteo Salvini to get an awful lot of front-page interviews and Op-eds but when all the votes are counted the bigger surprise may be the success of the Greens and even the Left… Social Democrats to win the Most Seats in Danish General Election This is the first of my two predictions in national level EU elections next year. I predicted the Social Democrats to win the most seats in last September’s Swedish Election and called it successfully but it is still unclear whether I was also correct to predict their leader, Stefan Lofven, would be the next Prime Minister given the complicated coalition structure and ongoing negotiations. This structure is also similar in Denmark so while the Social Democrats led in almost every poll in 2018, they may not lead the next government. However, I am confident they’ll win the most seats. Socialist Party to win the Most Seats in Portuguese General Election Ireland aside, the performance of the Portuguese economy has been one of the so-called post financial crash success stories. The Socialist Party is flying high in the polls and have drawn the attention of socialist leaders from around the UK with Jeremy Corbyn praising their governmental performance recently at the Congress of European Socialists in Lisbon in December. The election is not until October though and their biggest risk is that an economic downturn has already started to impact the perception of the Portuguese electorate though as I mentioned at the start, I think the election will come too early for this to transpire. That’s all from me on next year. I would love to hear any predictions you have in the comments section below. Thank for you reading throughout the year and I wish you all a healthy and happy 2019…  2018 has been a turbulent year with many political shocks. However, I think we may still look back at in in years to come as the calm before the storm. A year of political stagnation across most of the West, where poor leadership and decision-making was masked slightly by a still buoyant global economy, enjoying the final flourish of the recovery from the last financial crisis in 2008
While tomorrow I will make my predictions for 2019, this article will reflect on what I had written this time last year and how it held up. Having had a quick review already, my first thoughts are that I was a little vague in my predictions which makes it a little difficult to full assess how successful I was. Some of them were quite thematic and general, as opposed to specific, quantifiable predictions. I will try and alter this slightly for next year but for now it’s time to assess how each prediction turned out. Trump to continue his Erratic Foreign Policy but No War: It seems very obvious now that there wouldn’t be a “war” in 2018 but this can also be a case of selective memory bias. In 2017, Trump was involved in some very public threats and spats with North Korean leader, Kim Jong Un. In September, at Trump’s first address to the United Nations, he threatened “to totally destroy North Korea”. At this stage he had only been President for 9 months and we were still at the anything is possible phase. Since then, he has shocked the world by actually meeting Kim Jong Un in Singapore in June but most of 2018 his focus was on domestic issues including the US Midterm elections and the ongoing Robert Mueller investigation. The Global Bull Market Run to Continue, Just About...: Last year, I did caveat this with “just about”. However, nearly every global index has finished down in 2018 according to this excellent summary page from the Wall Street Journal so ultimately I got this wrong. I do think I was slightly correct in the sense that the ramifications of this haven’t filtered through to political discourse yet. I have a lot more thoughts on the global economic outlook, though I will save that for tomorrow’s predictions… China to Continue its Steady, Low-Key Ascent to Global Hegemony: This is an example of one of those predictions that are hard to quantify. Nothing has happened this year in China to contradict this assertion. Furthermore, continued stagnation by many of its closest Western rivals has also probably helped. It will be interesting to see if China can handle another economic downturn as aptly as they did in 2008, when their massive Chinese Economic Stimulus Plan not only helped to stabilize the Chinese economy but possibly helped to mitigate the global economic damage. Tories to Survive and Brexit is Happening: As of today, both aspects of this prediction are correct. The Conservatives will almost certainly finish 2018 still in government. They have had some challenging moments but ultimately, party loyalty and the threat of losing their seat in a snap election, helped keep Theresa May in power. Her prestige has been severely dented and since the Conservative’s annual conference we have started to see the potential next leaders jockey for position. “Brexit is Happening” looks a lot less certain now than it did in the summer. There seems to be no clear parliamentary majority for any deal and the chances of a second referendum have certainly risen. I am going to carefully consider what I predict in 2019 though I genuinely believe anyone’s guess is as good as anyone else’s in British politics currently. Fine Gael to increase seats lead over Fianna Fail in any Irish General Election: There was no election in 2018 so I suppose this prediction has to be rendered null and void. However, Fine Gael has polled very strong throughout most of 2018 and I think it’s pretty evident they “would have” increased their seats lead over Fianna Fail in any Irish General Election. That said, the last poll of 2018 only gave Fine Gael a 2% lead over Fianna Fail so it will be interesting to see if they do continue to enjoy strong leads, particularly if Brexit turns out to be particularly damaging for the Irish economy. The Irish Abortion Referendum Campaign to be Brutal: It was brutal but there wasn’t quite the level of vitriol as I had envisaged here previously. It did not become our Trump or Brexit moment and the massive margin of victory for the Yes side has helped the country to heal quickly and move forward. It must be a sign of Ireland’s democratic and social maturity that the result has been respected by all sides. The Citizen’s Assembly process has rightly been given a lot of credit as it really helped the Irish electorate to understand the implications of their vote. Iran to get even closer to Russia/China and avoid a Revolution: The revolution was indeed avoided. The renewal of the sanctions against Iran will certainly lead to further future unrest. I am also concerned that either Benjamin Netanyahu or Donald Trump will try and use Iran as a distraction from their own domestic challenges in 2019. To be honest, I think I will need some further time to read up and decide if Iran did move closer to Russia and China in 2018 as it isn’t always evident in the media sources I mostly follow…. In summary, I think I did OK overall. Upon reviewing this I do get the further feel that 2018 was a bit of a “holding year”. When I write my 2019 predictions tomorrow, one major dilemma I will have to contend with is whether I believe this will be the same next year or whether we really are about to enter a period of even greater instability and chaos…
Brazilian’s go to the polls on Sunday in the second run-off against Fernando Haddad. He has a massive lead in this two-horse race and it seems almost impossible for Haddad to now catch him. I punted on Fernando Haddad to win as I believed Jair Bolsonaro’s first round performance would be much lower (46%) and the gap between him and Fernando Haddad (29%) would be much closer. I called it completely wrong and realised I don’t really know enough about Brazilian politics or Brazil to really contribute anything to the debate. Therefore, I won’t really write much here except express my sadness and concern for the direction Brazil is moving in. It would be a massive political shock if Haddad wins and it could lead to civil unrest in Brazil. However, this seems very unlikely given all the recent polling. I will follow next Monday though I really can’t see anything other then a Bolsonaro win now. The question is how much of what Bolsonaro has said up until today is bluster and bravado and how much of it does he intend to follow through on. If the latter is the case, Brazil is in for a very, very challenging few years… 
On Sunday, Brazilians go to the polls to vote for their next President. Brazil has been struggling economically for quite some time and there is a lot of anger, disillusionment and hunger for change on the streets. I have been following the election build up quite closely in recent months. It is a very interesting campaign with a former great, angry new voices and relative unknowns trying to emerge as the future leader. However, the intricacies of the Brazilian politics will be left to others with more knowledge to write about and I will focus mostly on the polling and data aspects with reference to events where it is relevant. The far right, populist candidate, Jair Bolsonaro, has led every poll in 2018 that didn’t include Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula, the former President who is not allowed to run but who PT (his party) had hoped would be able to find a way around the Supreme Court ruling. He is the favourite ahead of Sunday’s election and is still slowly creeping upwards to reach 32% in two of the most recent polls.  His main rival appears to be Fernando Haddad of the PT party, who was initially meant to be Lula’s running mate but in the last two months has become the party’s official candidate. He is a former mayor of Sao Paulo.
When Lula officially withdrew from the race on September 12th, Haddad was languishing on around 10% in the polls in third place, also behind Ciro Gomes of the Democratic Labour Party. Since then, he has climbed consistently in the polls and is now floating between 20% and 24%. This puts the gap at approximately 10%. However, the crucial point is that if no candidate gets 50%+1 of the votes in the first round, there will be a second round run off on October 28th. While, Bolsonaro is slowly climbing, it is still highly unlikely that he will experience a large enough late surge to claim a majority. The polls also conduct potential second round run-offs and these have been very close, either placing both candidates on the same percentage of giving a 1-2% lead to Bolsonaro. It looks very likely that Bolsonaro will creep up a further point or two between now and voting on Sunday, while the same may be the case for Haddad. I am quite confident that Bolsonaro will come first but will not win a majority, I am more concerned about Bolsonaro’s total and the gap between him and Haddad. As mentioned earlier, Haddad is still quote close in the second round run offs, but this can change very quickly if the Brazilian public perceive Bolsonaro to be the President in waiting. Therefore, I think Haddad needs to finish within 10% points of Bolsonaro, while also keeping Bolsonaro’s total below 35%. In this scenario there would still be 40% of the electorate to fight for with Haddad needing to win two thirds of these to finish ahead. I backed the incumbent but controversial Milos Zeman to win the Czech Presidential election in January earlier this year after he finished the first round on 38.6% to Jiri Drahos’ 26.6%. The next 4 candidates all supported Drahos but Zeman had enough of a lead to narrowly win the second round. The situation is slightly different here as Bolsonaro is not an incumbent and the other candidates will not all support Haddad but it is very difficult to win a second round run off if your opponent is close to 40% and you are 10% behind. Another crucial factor will be who, if anyone, receives the endorsement of Geraldo Alckmin of the Brazilian Social Democracy Party. He is currently polling at around 7-10%. His economic policies would be much closer to those of Bolsonaro’s but it may be hard to endorse the man given his long list of controversial statements. So, in summary, I will be keeping an eye out on three things next Monday; Bolsonaro’s total %, his lead over Haddad and the comments of the other then eliminated candidates. I will write a follow up closer to the second round run off as well (provided there is one).  I started A Bit Left and A Bit Lost in June 2017. Initially, it was something to do while I moved countries and searched for a job. A way to combine my interest in politics and current affairs with that little spark for writing I think I've always had but rarely used.
It's been a great seven months. I've written around thirty articles and even got a few published on Slugger O' Toole. However, I love having everything I write on my own medium, so I can link back to previous articles and develop some themes and trends. These trends can evolve over time or dissipate in numerous ways. From key characters stepping aside or a catalyst for change. The Political Punts page allows me to make "hard" predictions on a certain date and then look back and either bask in a little self congratulation or try to identify what I incorrectly assumed or based the bet on. These 2018 predictions are a mix of themes and potential events. I always place at least a little wager on the political punts so finding markets online to match my views and predictions can be tricky. For these, they are more general predictions and most touch on topics I have covered in 2017. Trump to continue his Erratic Foreign Policy but No War: The United States is in disarray under Donald Trump. Trump has already had spats with numerous leaders and caused widespread outrage with his decision to recognise Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. He has shown little ability to maintain a coherent foreign policy. Trump is easily distracted by individual events and I expect this to continue. I think, in time, 2017 will be seen as a year of regression for the US but for now the buoyant global economy is giving Trump some breathing space. The Global Bull Market Run to Continue, Just About...: 2017 has been a great year for the global economy and stick markets. We are definitely getting close to the peak and there will eventually be a market correction but there should just about be enough fuel left for 2018 to be another positive year. If this is the case, I will probably be making a very different 2019 prediction. China to Continue its Steady, Low-Key Ascent to Global Hegemony: It was a good year for China and its leader Xi Jinping. He managed to consolidate his hold on power, prevented Trump from delivering on his pre-election threats on trade and China avoided any hard economic landing, while extending its global diplomatic and economic reach. I expect 2018 to be a similar year and would be surprised if there are any major negative stories. Tories to Survive and Brexit is Happening: 2018 will be a tough year for the United Kingdom. Brexit is not going to be reversed with the current government (or a Labour alternative). The current Tory Government will probably survive but continue to stutter along. It is hard to see how the UK will be in a better state this time next year than now. However, politics in the UK has been so shocking since the Scottish Independence referendum was first called and there is every chance that something equally surprising and unexpected will happen in 2018. Fine Gael to increase seats lead over Fianna Fail in any Irish General Election: The economic headline figures will continue to impress and this will be enough for many to approve of Leo Varadkar and Fine Gael. Furthermore, the "Brexit talks bounce" will continue to help Fine Gael and paralyse Fianna Fail. 2018 should be a good year for Fine Gael and Leo Varadkar. The Irish Abortion Referendum Campaign to be Brutal: I think this will be a very nasty, divisive election. Much more similar to the last US Presidential election or the Brexit Referendum than the Marriage Equality Referendum. It is a much more partisan topic than marriage equality, which I believe the average Irish voter ultimately viewed as a matter of common decency and fairness. It should pass but if the odds go above 5 or 6/1 I may take a small speculative punt on it not passing. Iran to get even closer to Russia/China and avoid a Revolution: The news has been filled with coverage of the current unrest in Iran recently. I don't think this will reach the levels of 2009 and the Green Revolution. Iran will continue to forge deeper links with Russia and China as Trump will make occasional threats against Iran, mainly at the best of Benjamin Netanyahu and the American pro-Israel lobby. Thank you for reading this year. Keep following and have a happy and healthy 2018!  The image above is a summary for a campaign I ran on Facebook recently. I had just set up a Facebook page for the website and when I posted for the first few times I received a notification basically asking me if I would like to “boost” my post.
In this sense, boosting applies to paying for my post to appear on people’s walls on Facebook, so as they scroll down it will appear. As an introductory offer, they “give” you 30 Euros worth of free advertising to get started. I did avail of this offer and for 5 euros I was able to appear on 1,050 Walls and 200 people read the article (or at least clicked on the link). I was able to narrow this down to 18-65 year-old males in UK, US, Hong Kong or Singapore who have explicitly labelled “Politics” as one of their interests on their profile. There were further options to specify available which even allow further focus. Fake news is a topic that is consistently discussed in political forums. It has gained traction since the election of Donald Trump as US President. It has been used to describe everything from news reports by CNN to alleged attempts by foreign governments to influence elections and public opinion in other countries. There are some excellent articles on this from the Guardian. In recent times, Facebook have made announcement that they will crack down on media outlets who appear to promote fake news. However, there is still a lot of scope to spread opinions or articles that are very borderline and misleading. When you consider the resources available to think tanks and potential agencies social media is still a hugely unregulated medium of information dissemination and good old-fashioned propaganda. For example, I just went through the motions of creating a campaign in California for people interested in “Politics”. For 10,000 Euros, you could reach 1,700,000 to 2,000,000 over the space of a week. This is not a topic that will go away. While I am sure in time there will be ways to enhance greater regulation, for now governments and corporations more opportunity to influence elections and referendums than ever before in a legal manner….  Trump’s first speech to the UN was like a typical campaign speech we saw at his rallies across the US in the run-up to his election. It was full of rhetoric about the greatness of America, while sending threats to “rogue states” around the world.
After some self praise for the buoyant state of the American economy, Trump honed in on North Korea. If possible, the language was even more aggressive than we have previously heard. “forced to defend itself or its allies, we will have no choice but to totally destroy North Korea.” One interesting addition to the North Korea part of the speech was his expressed gratitude for China and Russia for backing the sanctions. “the United Nations Security Council recently held two unanimous 15-0 votes adopting hard-hitting resolutions against North Korea, and I want to thank China and Russia for joining the vote to impose sanctions” I think Trump has finally woken up to the fact that any agreement or deal with Kim Jong Un will need to have at least some input from the Chinese, if not their outright approval. This is a point I have made since the spat erupted, back in July. It is also interesting to note that this was the only direct reference to Russia in the speech. There was a veiled threat to Russia when he spoke of the “threats to sovereignty from the Ukraine to the South China Sea.” However in general it seemed evident to me that the US-Russian relationship isn’t a topic Trump wants to broach right now. Trump transitioned from North to Iran without any differentiation between the regimes. It was a bit of a throwback to George W Bush and his “axis of evil”. His criticism of the Iranian regime was quite predictable and nothing that hasn’t really been said before “It has turned a wealthy country, with a rich history and culture, into an economically depleted rogue state whose chief exports are violence, bloodshed, and chaos.” His quotes on the Iranian deal would be quite worrying to all those who have invested time and effort into it; “The Iran deal was one of the worst and most one-sided transactions the United States has ever entered into.” Fortunately, Trump has already had opportunities to cancel the "deal" as the agreement must be renewed every quarter, most recently on July 18th. The bombastic language was probably at least partly influenced by his meeting with the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, the day before. I still think Iran may benefit from Trump’s inability to focus and tackle an issue on a consistent basis, as I laid out here previously. The last part that was noteworthy was Trump’s discourse on refugees and where they should be located. He explicitly thanked Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey though he made it clear he believes refugees should stay in their ‘home region’ until they can return to their country “For the cost of resettling one refugee in the United States, we can assist more than 10 in their home region.” Ultimately, we learnt little from Trump’s speech. The jingoistic sentiment would have appealed to his base back in the US while his “enemies” would certainly have gotten the message that he at least talks a tough game. For the rest of us, we learnt more from what He didn’t say. No reference to the Paris agreement , the Palestinian question or his plans for the trade imbalance with China. Trump failed to lay out his grand vision for his administration’s foreign policy. It was little more than nationalist, sabre rattling that leaves me with little confidence that Trump’s views on America’s role in world affairs has evolved since his first campaign speeches back in the AUtumn of 2015.
To the casual observer of world news and press photography, the contrast between Justin Trudeau and Vladimir Putin couldn't be starker. Justin Trudeau is the darling of the liberal world. Tall, good looking and not afraid to "have fun". His media appearances are often at cultural events which offer fantastic opportunities for pictures. This works well for him and his Liberal Party. It also adds to Canada’s ever increasing soft diplomatic power as the antithesis to Trump’s America. On immigration, he has taken a strong stance of making Canada a warm and open place for refugees. On other topics, he is often less vocal. He can rely on the goodwill from the Canadian public and the support of news outlets like the Huffington Post to go easy on him. Why wouldn’t they when he gives them so many opportunities to pen such insightful articles like this. Compare this with the image of Vladimir Putin. The many photos of him hunting, fishing (mostly shirtless) or even competing in his beloved judo are often the object of derision and ridicule across the West. “How can the Russian people take him seriously?” and “he looks ridiculous” abound across comment boards and social mediums. Putin believes that this strong image resonates well with the Russian public and with his allies around the world. He certainly is popular with the Russian people. While data may not be reliable, he has consistently polled high, even while sanctions have damaged the domestic economy. Furthermore, many of Russian’s allies around the world are also lead by “strong men”. Just this week Putin promised to give Viktor Orban, the Hungarian Prime Minister, a judo lesson. Both politicians are very successful at choreographing and managing their public perception to the tastes of their target audiences. The fact that many liberals simply laugh at Putin, and the seemingly ridiculous array of meme-worthy material available, is an indictment of their political acumen above most else. Simply dismissing his approach and neglecting to provide a counter argument or narrative is a very naïve approach. Equally, if we simply fawn over Trudeau (and closer to home Leo Varadkar as I've mentioned before) without also pushing for progress in legislation and policy, we are being equally distracted from the realpolitik. Of course, Justin Trudeau has been a positive influence in many ways. Canada is a beacon hope for many around the world today. Just remember that these images and actions aren’t always entirely altruistic and both men advance their aims and influence through shrewd use of the media resources available to them.
After my first attempt at an article I wanted to write about something a little lighter. This topic has gained a lot of traction in recent times and is something witness on a regular basis. I have seen a lot of articles across the media suggest 'XYZ election' could have been won if the youth (normally the 18-35 age profile is referenced) vote had turned up in equal numbers to their elders. LSE-sponsored Opinum polls suggest that in the Brexit vote only 64% of 18-24 year olds voted versus 90% of those 65+. As the title suggests, this article will initially look at what I believe drives Millenials psyche and then actually translate that into solid, concrete votes. Basically a two prong approach of how to get those likes etc and then how to translate them into votes
I am not going to discuss policies here. It goes without saying that the Youth are typically more attracted to the left leaning peers, both in terms of economic and social policies. Whilst this is not quite a universal truth it holds up quite well across the globe (open for contradiction here if any regions demonstrate the opposite). Appealing to the Youth First thing first, get a candidate that is affable and can handle impromptu interactions with the public. Social Media has completely changed how politicians are perceived. An example of a politician who handles this well is Justin Trudeau, possibly the poster boy of the progressive Left. The cynical side of me sees his casual moments that 'happen' to be caught on camera as very calculated and cunning. He is the face of a very well oiled public relations team. Just remember the candid picture of him photobombing a wedding while jogging was taken by his official photographer. The flip side to this is that every moment of unscripted interaction with public is a potential major setback While powerful oratory skills are still a great asset to have, a powerful 20 minute speech that is applauded by the broadsheets can be undone by a 5 second answer caught on a camera phone that gets turned into a parody video and share 500 thousand times. It really is that simple.Theresa May is an example of a leader who looks so uncomfortable interacting with the public, she never looks comfortable and you can tell she is being reined in from now to the finish line. Hillary Clinton was more effective at this but still looked a little shaky at times. Social media is crucial but so far I don't think it has been utilised as effectively as possible by candidates. The crux of it is that it's easy to get followers of a well managed Facebook page or Twitter feed but I don't always see how that translates into high turnout and votes. This is where a party needs to think about what drives the Millenial mindset and moves me perfectly to the second part of article How to get the Millenial Vote Out Utilize the 'FOMO' concept. Millenials are constantly looking at what their peers are doing and what needs to be done. If you choose the correct candidate described above you can rely on an organic social media game through viral sharing of positive videos etc Channel these funds into events on election day where the potential electorate can attend and 'check in'. This will be the next level fo Millennial support here after simply liking or following a candidate. Crucially however the party will then provide transport to the polling stations (or as close as possible given the varying local voting laws). A number of events can be held over the course of the day and these will generate publicity and increase momentum. Turn voting into an experiential concept. The more aspects of the process that can be 'shared' and done together will increase the desire to participate. The more radical suggestion would encounter a lot of obstacles and in all likelihood is more Minority Report than mainstream politics. However it would undoubtedly be a game changer with the younger vote. If voting could ever be doen digitally or online I believe the youth turnout jump instantly. This would meet resistance from incumbent, conservative parties, traditionalist and , given all the allegations of Russian interference in Western elections, most national security agencies. However for parties who know they clearly much more successful with younger voters it should at least be on the radar. Ultimately making the youth turn up and vote is not an easy endeavour. They are disillusioned with many mainstream parties and cynicism typically ruins supreme. I don't believe they'll vote as much on policy as they will on gaining peer acceptance and approval. Unless they think it's something that their friends are doing they wont bother. Its no longer so much a case of 'win the hearts and minds' as it is of borrow their desire to be accepted, validated and not miss out. |
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