The New Hampshire Primary takes place today. I just wanted to pen a few thoughts without going into too much detail as I am very time limited today. The last update was a week ago to preview Iowa.
I have always presented a fixed set of data about the top seven candidates which I have placed at the bottom today. However, I have then always added a little blurb on each candidate’s recent changes in polling and probability, as well as assessing their prospects. Unfortunately, today I am just going to write a short preview on how tonight will go and what that will mean for the race to be the Next Democratic Presidential candidate.
Bernie Sanders simply has to win tonight. This will be the easiest of all 50 states for him and if he fails to win here, then we might start to see the decline of his campaign.
There are a few reasons why I believe this to be the case;
Buttigieg had a fantastic result in Iowa and it looks like he either won by a very small margin or finished level with Sanders. However, Buttigieg really exceeded expectation there and got a big bump in national polls. He will struggle to reach the 15% threshold in Nevada or South Carolina unless he can win tonight or, at the very least, poll very strongly.
Amy Klobuchar and Elizabeth Warren need to get over the 15% threshold so that they can stay relevant. If they fail to do so, there is a small chance that they will end their campaign, but I would say that is very unlikely for now as both should still hit 10% at the very least.
Finally, tonight may well see the end of Andrew Yang’s Presidential tilt I can’t see him getting over 5% while there isn’t one single state where he is polling above 15% and has a has a realistic chance of gaining delegates. He’s added a different dimension to the debate so far but I think his time in the spotlight is almost up…
Andrew Yang (Implied Probability: 0.6% / -1.5% (National Polling: 2% - 4%) (New Hampshire Polling: 3% - 4%)
Amy Klobuchar (Implied Probability: 2.8% / +1.5% (National Polling: 3% - 6%) (New Hampshire Polling: 7% - 14%)
Elizabeth Warren (Implied Probability: 4.0% / -2.1% (National Polling: 14% - 18%) (New Hampshire Polling: 10% - 12%)
Joe Biden (Implied Probability: 8.7% / -20.3% (National Polling: 17% - 28%) (New Hampshire Polling: 10% - 12%)
Pete Buttigieg (Implied Probability: 11.9% / +9.4% (National Polling: 6% - 10%) (New Hampshire Polling: 19% - 23%)
Michael Bloomberg (Implied Probability: 24.4% / +10.1% (National Polling: 9% - 15%) (New Hampshire Polling: 0% - 1%)
Bernie Sanders (Implied Probability: 39.7% / +1.6% (National Polling: 19% - 25%) (New Hampshire Polling: 27% - 30%)