No point trying to be a political analyst without sometimes putting my money where my mouth is;
10.04.2019: Labour to win Most Seats *if* the UK contests the 2019 UK European Elections (6/4)
It seems increasingly likely that the UK will contest the 2019 elections. If they do, I believe Labour will take the most seats as they will up against a Conservative Party in absolute disarray who are facing attacks from the both the right and the centre of British politics. Theresa May has lost all credibility and I can see many voters defect to the Brexit Party, UKIP and, in the other direction, to the Change Group. Labour will certainly suffer from voter defections but I believe their impact will be relatively less damaging.
10.04.2019: Manfred Weber to be the next EU Commission President (5/6)
I think the EP group will win the most seats at the European Parliamentary elections and that gives their spitzenkandidat, Manfed Weber, the best chance of being the next EU Commission President. There will of course be opposition, and there are opposing visions for the future direction of the European Union, but in the end I think Weber will triumph.
28.03.2019: Volodymyr Zelensky to be the next Ukranian President (4/6)
Yes, Zelensky is a television actor with little experience in politics but he is surging in the polls at the right time and the incumbent Petro Poroshenko is seen by many as part of the corrupt establishment. The Ukraine Presidential election is similar to that of France and Brazil where if no candidate gains an absolute majority in the first round, a second round run-off between the top two follows. I expect Zelensky to lead after the first round and then hope his charisma is enough to get him over the line. The odds are low but in the last ten or so polls he has had strong leads over his two closest rivals; Poroshenko and former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko
18.02.2019: The Spanish Socialist Worker's Party to win the Most Seats at next Spanish Election (4/7):
A snap election was called late last week over a budget dispute. I took some time to look at the recent polling and I am relatively confident they should win the most seats on April 28th. However, I would not be confident of Pedro Sanchez continuing as Prime Minister and there may even be another election later in the year...
13.02.2019: The Democrats to win the next US Presidential Election (4/6):
I wanted to get this in now as I think with further polling it will slowly drop in odds. I do believe Donald Trump will be a one-term President but I have paired this with Next US President being a Man as a quasi-hedge. I am a little worried about what candidate the Democrats will choose. I think early polling will show the successful Democratic candidate ahead but it won't be easy campaigning against Trump.
13.02.2019: The Next US President to be a Man (4/7):
I genuinely don't believe the Democrats will put up a female candidate given Hillary Clinton's experience versus Donald Trump. This is quite a controversial stance given the number of high profile female candidates like Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren. However, ultimately, I believe it will be a man taking on Donald Trump.
16.10.2018: Stephen Fitzpatrick not to be a Louth TD after next Irish General Election (4/6):
The latest political punt is a very "local" one for me. Stephen Fitzpatrick is a twice elected TD in Louth. He has a high profile as he brought Louth Gaelic team to the cusp of Leinster glory in 2010. However, he has recently left Fine Gael over the 8th Amendment Referendum fallout and as announced that he will contest next election as in independent. This will be a very difficult ask and I was very shocked to see the odds at 4/6. I think it is even possible that he may, in time, decide to call it a halt and not even contest...
16.10.2018: The UK to leave the EU by March 31st 2019 (1/2): Loss 60% (Cashed Out on 22.1.2019)
I am completely and utterly sick of Brexit. I think most of the British public are too. I don't know on what terms the UK will leave the EU and whether a deal will be reached but I don't see a General Election or a Second Referendum hence I believe Article 50 will not be delayed. I have learnt my lesson on time linked bets in the past. However, I advise against betting on something "to happen" whereas this is just over a 50% return the status quo remaining...
10.9.2018: Fernando Haddad to be the next Brazilian President (7/2): LOSS
A long shot. The Brazilian Presidential election is like the French in the sense that there is a first round on October 6th and if no one receives 50%, then the top two go into a face-off at the end of the month. Fernando Haddad has a lot of hurdles to overcome. He first needs to ensure he is on the ballot for PT as its nominee. This is contingent on Lula da Silva not being allowed to run. He will then face a stiff challenge to make it to the final two as it is unlikely anyone will win in the first round. Based on current polling, he would be up against the far-right Jair Bolsonara. I believe the Brazilian electorate would eventually pull back from the brink, even if they show their despair at the country’s current malaise by giving Bolsonaro the most votes in Round 1. For the more cautious among you I suggest punting against Bolsonaro to be the next President at Evens. However, I have stuck to Haddad in the hope that decency prevails and Brazil rejects the creeping growth of far right rhetoric…
20.8.18: Social Democrats to Win the Most Seats at Next Swedish Election (Evens): WIN 95% Return
I have already punted on the leader of the Social Democrats (and current Prime Minister) to be to Prime Minister again at 6/5. This now looks very precarious and is available at 13/5. However, the Social Democrats to win the most seats at evens is still excellent value. In Sweden, governments are built around a broad left or right coalitions. While the overall coalition numbers look less promising for Stefen Lofven and his party, the polls consistently show them taking the most seats, with a few exceptions where the Swedish Democrats have pipped them.
25.7.18: Imran Khan next Pakistan Prime Minister (1/3): WIN 32% Return
I had to use an exchange for this as the election is today. Khan is the big favourite and has the tacit support of the military as well. In Pakistan, this is very important. This is one punt where I'll be proven right or wrong very quickly...
15.4.18: Stefan Lofven to be the Next Swedish Prime Minister (6/5): WIN 125% Return (added more % later)
This will be one of the major European elections in 2018. Lofven is the incumbent Prime Minister and the Swedish economy is outperforming its Scandinavian peers. However, this is not a bet without risk. As leader of the Social Democrats, Lofven relies on the support of the Greens in a minority government. With the shadow of the Swedish Democrats, the Swedish far right party currently looming over the country' politics it will be a difficult contest to predict. Ultimately, I see Lofven doing enough to return to power with come creative alliances while Sweden prevents a far right party entering government, even if the Swedish Democrats' support continues to grow
7.3.18: Fine Gael Most Seats at Next Dail Election (1/2):
I've continued to follow Irish politics closely. An election is drawing near but I can't predict if it will be 2018 or 2019 and I don't want to put money on that. I still believe, that with economy as it is, Fine Gael will come out on top. I've added some additional Fine Gael exposure but diversified away from purely Leo Varadkar next Taoiseach. At 1/2 this isn't "cheap" but I am now long on Fine Gael and Leo Varadkar, though at same time, my FF/SF next government at 7/1 from August would still be a large win overall.
6.3.18: Democrats to Control the House after 2018 Elections (4/7): WIN 57%
Democrats are leading in almost every poll. Trump has some of the lowest approval ratings after a year in term. Even with strong ratings, the party with the incumbent president often suffers in the midterms. However, this punt isn't all plain-sailing. Based on the underlying voting structure, the Democrats typically need to win by about 8% to take the majority. It will be close but I think a re-energized Democratic Party will win. Follow the polls here on Nate Silver.
25.01.18: Bernie Sanders to be next US President (16/1):
I'm getting this in early while prices are high. Not many bookies offer cash out on politics so I took the slightly lower odds (18s was available elsewhere) to have the ability to cash out at any point. This bet may be slightly biased as I was gutted when he lost out last time around to Hillary Clinton. His biggest challenge will be age, he will be 79 the next time Americans go to the polls. However, there is some younger talent in the Democratic Party who may view running as VP as an excellent way to be the 2024 Presidential candidate. Either way, this bet is a very slow burner….
25.01.18: Leo Varadkar to be next Taoiseach (10/11):
I have followed the markets for Fine Gael most seats and Leo next Taoiseach for a while. I missed the drop in the former so recently focused on the latter. I also wanted some sort of (imperfect hedge) for my FF/SF next Govt which I’ve fallen out of favour with. Leo is on the up, just got great poll data and his biggest rival, Micheal Martin, is looking weak. I was fortunate to know where to still find this at 10/11. It’s now only available at 2/5. However, it can easily lift higher again on an unfavourable poll or some other event but I can’t see it get back close to evens.
22.01.18: Milos Zeman to win the Czech Presidential Election (6/4): WIN 150% Return
Milos Zeman is the incumbent president. The Czech election is similar to the French in the sense that if no candidate wins first round majority, the top two go to a run-off. In the first round Zeman got 38.6% of the vote while his closest competitor, Jiri Drahos, got 26.6%. However,the next four candidates have all backed Drahos. Drahos is perceived as more pro-European and more civil. At the time of writing he is the odds-on favourite and he is leading in most polls. I think the value is on Zeman and on election day more people will vote for what they know…
17.01.18: Five Star to win the Most Seats in the Italian General Election (5/6): WIN 83% Return
There is a lot of uncertainty in Italian politics at the moment. Five Star are odds on favourites but I still think it's decent value. The Italian system means they have almost no chance of getting into power even with the most seats as a coalitions is almost certainly required. I expect this to be the case.
13.01.18: Vote to Leave the 8th Amendment Unchanged (15/2): 0% Return/Loss - Breakeven
I have been following the 8th debate for quite some time since I wrote this article . I am punting now based on the question being along the lines "will abortion be available up until 12 weeks on demand" - the recommendation of the Citizen's Committee. This, in itself, is a gamble. I am doing this based on the odds. 15/2 implies there is a 88.2% chance that the Referendum will pass. I think that's very off and underestimates the resistance to abortion amongst many Irish people still. As we move closer to the referendum, I expect the odds to tighten and will hedge this bet if my overall outlay is covered...
***Hedged on 31.1.18 so can't lose. Return on No Repeal would now be 324% on total outlay or breakeven if 8th repealed
15.12.17: Ciutadans to gain most seats in Catalan Election on December 21st (2/1): WIN 200% Return
Came across this while doing a bit of research for the latest Catalan article. Ciutadans are the largest unionist party in Catalonia. They were available at 2/1 even though the two last polls on the 15th both put them approximately 2% points ahead of ERC, the largest independence party. There is a feeling that the Catalan electorate may want a period of stability after a turbulent few months. I only put on a small amount and it's one political punt I wouldn't mind losing...
27.11.17: Michael Martin not to be Fianna Fail Leader on June 1st 2018 (5/2): LOSS
Michael Martin looks to be in quite a weak position now. In an election he needs to finish ahead of Fine Gael to survive. Even if he does that he may need Sinn Fein to go into government (see below). He has made this a red line and I can envisage a heave if the numbers add up. The risk on this best is that an election is averted for now, FF and FG agree new Confidence and Supply deal and an election is agreed for 2019 after UK Brexit talks finish. It's unlikely, but possible...
23.11.17: Frances Fitzgerald not to be a Government Minister on Jan 1st 2018 (8/11): WIN 44% Return
I jumped on this the moment Sinn Fein tabled the motion. Either she'll be forced to resign by Fianna Fail threatening to pull down the Government or there will be an election. The odds seem attractive
*** I hedged this bet and put 20% of initial outlay on her remaining as one. Will get a 44% return on the total outlay if she leaves or a 83% return if she stays. The meeting on 24.11.17 evening between Michael Martin and Leo Varadkar spooked me into thinking they'll postpone election until January...
6.10.17: Boris Johnson Next Conservative Party Leader (4/1):
A month ago I wrote how Boris probably couldn't become leader here. However once Theresa May did not fire him for his Telegraph article he became the front runner by default. It's far from a foregone conclusion but 4s offers great value. He is as short as 3/1 with some bookies.
14.9.17: Donald Trump to Cease Being President in 2020 or Later (5/4):
He could quit, be impeached or even resign on health grounds but the value is still excellent. I had been mulling over this for a while but the catalyst to pull the trigger was Mueller's announcement that his investigation is focusing more on Russia's social media interference in US election
1.9.17: Labour to win the most seats at the next UK General election (4/5):
The value isn't fantastic but the Tories continue to get plenty of negative media coverage as the Brexit trainwreck rolls on. There is obviously a higher price for Jeremy Corbyn as next Prime Minister but there is every chance there may be an internal Tory mutiny before any election. This will be a slow burner so need patience.
17.08.17: Next Irish Government to be Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein (7/1):
As it stands in polling Fine Gael will be the largest party after the next general election. I can't see Fianna Fail accepting being a minority partner again if it any way close. Even if Fianna Fail finish first they will almost certainly fall short of an overall majority. The noise has already started on both sides and I expect it to get a lot louder over the next eighteen months
10.04.2019: Labour to win Most Seats *if* the UK contests the 2019 UK European Elections (6/4)
It seems increasingly likely that the UK will contest the 2019 elections. If they do, I believe Labour will take the most seats as they will up against a Conservative Party in absolute disarray who are facing attacks from the both the right and the centre of British politics. Theresa May has lost all credibility and I can see many voters defect to the Brexit Party, UKIP and, in the other direction, to the Change Group. Labour will certainly suffer from voter defections but I believe their impact will be relatively less damaging.
10.04.2019: Manfred Weber to be the next EU Commission President (5/6)
I think the EP group will win the most seats at the European Parliamentary elections and that gives their spitzenkandidat, Manfed Weber, the best chance of being the next EU Commission President. There will of course be opposition, and there are opposing visions for the future direction of the European Union, but in the end I think Weber will triumph.
28.03.2019: Volodymyr Zelensky to be the next Ukranian President (4/6)
Yes, Zelensky is a television actor with little experience in politics but he is surging in the polls at the right time and the incumbent Petro Poroshenko is seen by many as part of the corrupt establishment. The Ukraine Presidential election is similar to that of France and Brazil where if no candidate gains an absolute majority in the first round, a second round run-off between the top two follows. I expect Zelensky to lead after the first round and then hope his charisma is enough to get him over the line. The odds are low but in the last ten or so polls he has had strong leads over his two closest rivals; Poroshenko and former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko
18.02.2019: The Spanish Socialist Worker's Party to win the Most Seats at next Spanish Election (4/7):
A snap election was called late last week over a budget dispute. I took some time to look at the recent polling and I am relatively confident they should win the most seats on April 28th. However, I would not be confident of Pedro Sanchez continuing as Prime Minister and there may even be another election later in the year...
13.02.2019: The Democrats to win the next US Presidential Election (4/6):
I wanted to get this in now as I think with further polling it will slowly drop in odds. I do believe Donald Trump will be a one-term President but I have paired this with Next US President being a Man as a quasi-hedge. I am a little worried about what candidate the Democrats will choose. I think early polling will show the successful Democratic candidate ahead but it won't be easy campaigning against Trump.
13.02.2019: The Next US President to be a Man (4/7):
I genuinely don't believe the Democrats will put up a female candidate given Hillary Clinton's experience versus Donald Trump. This is quite a controversial stance given the number of high profile female candidates like Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren. However, ultimately, I believe it will be a man taking on Donald Trump.
16.10.2018: Stephen Fitzpatrick not to be a Louth TD after next Irish General Election (4/6):
The latest political punt is a very "local" one for me. Stephen Fitzpatrick is a twice elected TD in Louth. He has a high profile as he brought Louth Gaelic team to the cusp of Leinster glory in 2010. However, he has recently left Fine Gael over the 8th Amendment Referendum fallout and as announced that he will contest next election as in independent. This will be a very difficult ask and I was very shocked to see the odds at 4/6. I think it is even possible that he may, in time, decide to call it a halt and not even contest...
16.10.2018: The UK to leave the EU by March 31st 2019 (1/2): Loss 60% (Cashed Out on 22.1.2019)
I am completely and utterly sick of Brexit. I think most of the British public are too. I don't know on what terms the UK will leave the EU and whether a deal will be reached but I don't see a General Election or a Second Referendum hence I believe Article 50 will not be delayed. I have learnt my lesson on time linked bets in the past. However, I advise against betting on something "to happen" whereas this is just over a 50% return the status quo remaining...
10.9.2018: Fernando Haddad to be the next Brazilian President (7/2): LOSS
A long shot. The Brazilian Presidential election is like the French in the sense that there is a first round on October 6th and if no one receives 50%, then the top two go into a face-off at the end of the month. Fernando Haddad has a lot of hurdles to overcome. He first needs to ensure he is on the ballot for PT as its nominee. This is contingent on Lula da Silva not being allowed to run. He will then face a stiff challenge to make it to the final two as it is unlikely anyone will win in the first round. Based on current polling, he would be up against the far-right Jair Bolsonara. I believe the Brazilian electorate would eventually pull back from the brink, even if they show their despair at the country’s current malaise by giving Bolsonaro the most votes in Round 1. For the more cautious among you I suggest punting against Bolsonaro to be the next President at Evens. However, I have stuck to Haddad in the hope that decency prevails and Brazil rejects the creeping growth of far right rhetoric…
20.8.18: Social Democrats to Win the Most Seats at Next Swedish Election (Evens): WIN 95% Return
I have already punted on the leader of the Social Democrats (and current Prime Minister) to be to Prime Minister again at 6/5. This now looks very precarious and is available at 13/5. However, the Social Democrats to win the most seats at evens is still excellent value. In Sweden, governments are built around a broad left or right coalitions. While the overall coalition numbers look less promising for Stefen Lofven and his party, the polls consistently show them taking the most seats, with a few exceptions where the Swedish Democrats have pipped them.
25.7.18: Imran Khan next Pakistan Prime Minister (1/3): WIN 32% Return
I had to use an exchange for this as the election is today. Khan is the big favourite and has the tacit support of the military as well. In Pakistan, this is very important. This is one punt where I'll be proven right or wrong very quickly...
15.4.18: Stefan Lofven to be the Next Swedish Prime Minister (6/5): WIN 125% Return (added more % later)
This will be one of the major European elections in 2018. Lofven is the incumbent Prime Minister and the Swedish economy is outperforming its Scandinavian peers. However, this is not a bet without risk. As leader of the Social Democrats, Lofven relies on the support of the Greens in a minority government. With the shadow of the Swedish Democrats, the Swedish far right party currently looming over the country' politics it will be a difficult contest to predict. Ultimately, I see Lofven doing enough to return to power with come creative alliances while Sweden prevents a far right party entering government, even if the Swedish Democrats' support continues to grow
7.3.18: Fine Gael Most Seats at Next Dail Election (1/2):
I've continued to follow Irish politics closely. An election is drawing near but I can't predict if it will be 2018 or 2019 and I don't want to put money on that. I still believe, that with economy as it is, Fine Gael will come out on top. I've added some additional Fine Gael exposure but diversified away from purely Leo Varadkar next Taoiseach. At 1/2 this isn't "cheap" but I am now long on Fine Gael and Leo Varadkar, though at same time, my FF/SF next government at 7/1 from August would still be a large win overall.
6.3.18: Democrats to Control the House after 2018 Elections (4/7): WIN 57%
Democrats are leading in almost every poll. Trump has some of the lowest approval ratings after a year in term. Even with strong ratings, the party with the incumbent president often suffers in the midterms. However, this punt isn't all plain-sailing. Based on the underlying voting structure, the Democrats typically need to win by about 8% to take the majority. It will be close but I think a re-energized Democratic Party will win. Follow the polls here on Nate Silver.
25.01.18: Bernie Sanders to be next US President (16/1):
I'm getting this in early while prices are high. Not many bookies offer cash out on politics so I took the slightly lower odds (18s was available elsewhere) to have the ability to cash out at any point. This bet may be slightly biased as I was gutted when he lost out last time around to Hillary Clinton. His biggest challenge will be age, he will be 79 the next time Americans go to the polls. However, there is some younger talent in the Democratic Party who may view running as VP as an excellent way to be the 2024 Presidential candidate. Either way, this bet is a very slow burner….
25.01.18: Leo Varadkar to be next Taoiseach (10/11):
I have followed the markets for Fine Gael most seats and Leo next Taoiseach for a while. I missed the drop in the former so recently focused on the latter. I also wanted some sort of (imperfect hedge) for my FF/SF next Govt which I’ve fallen out of favour with. Leo is on the up, just got great poll data and his biggest rival, Micheal Martin, is looking weak. I was fortunate to know where to still find this at 10/11. It’s now only available at 2/5. However, it can easily lift higher again on an unfavourable poll or some other event but I can’t see it get back close to evens.
22.01.18: Milos Zeman to win the Czech Presidential Election (6/4): WIN 150% Return
Milos Zeman is the incumbent president. The Czech election is similar to the French in the sense that if no candidate wins first round majority, the top two go to a run-off. In the first round Zeman got 38.6% of the vote while his closest competitor, Jiri Drahos, got 26.6%. However,the next four candidates have all backed Drahos. Drahos is perceived as more pro-European and more civil. At the time of writing he is the odds-on favourite and he is leading in most polls. I think the value is on Zeman and on election day more people will vote for what they know…
17.01.18: Five Star to win the Most Seats in the Italian General Election (5/6): WIN 83% Return
There is a lot of uncertainty in Italian politics at the moment. Five Star are odds on favourites but I still think it's decent value. The Italian system means they have almost no chance of getting into power even with the most seats as a coalitions is almost certainly required. I expect this to be the case.
13.01.18: Vote to Leave the 8th Amendment Unchanged (15/2): 0% Return/Loss - Breakeven
I have been following the 8th debate for quite some time since I wrote this article . I am punting now based on the question being along the lines "will abortion be available up until 12 weeks on demand" - the recommendation of the Citizen's Committee. This, in itself, is a gamble. I am doing this based on the odds. 15/2 implies there is a 88.2% chance that the Referendum will pass. I think that's very off and underestimates the resistance to abortion amongst many Irish people still. As we move closer to the referendum, I expect the odds to tighten and will hedge this bet if my overall outlay is covered...
***Hedged on 31.1.18 so can't lose. Return on No Repeal would now be 324% on total outlay or breakeven if 8th repealed
15.12.17: Ciutadans to gain most seats in Catalan Election on December 21st (2/1): WIN 200% Return
Came across this while doing a bit of research for the latest Catalan article. Ciutadans are the largest unionist party in Catalonia. They were available at 2/1 even though the two last polls on the 15th both put them approximately 2% points ahead of ERC, the largest independence party. There is a feeling that the Catalan electorate may want a period of stability after a turbulent few months. I only put on a small amount and it's one political punt I wouldn't mind losing...
27.11.17: Michael Martin not to be Fianna Fail Leader on June 1st 2018 (5/2): LOSS
Michael Martin looks to be in quite a weak position now. In an election he needs to finish ahead of Fine Gael to survive. Even if he does that he may need Sinn Fein to go into government (see below). He has made this a red line and I can envisage a heave if the numbers add up. The risk on this best is that an election is averted for now, FF and FG agree new Confidence and Supply deal and an election is agreed for 2019 after UK Brexit talks finish. It's unlikely, but possible...
23.11.17: Frances Fitzgerald not to be a Government Minister on Jan 1st 2018 (8/11): WIN 44% Return
I jumped on this the moment Sinn Fein tabled the motion. Either she'll be forced to resign by Fianna Fail threatening to pull down the Government or there will be an election. The odds seem attractive
*** I hedged this bet and put 20% of initial outlay on her remaining as one. Will get a 44% return on the total outlay if she leaves or a 83% return if she stays. The meeting on 24.11.17 evening between Michael Martin and Leo Varadkar spooked me into thinking they'll postpone election until January...
6.10.17: Boris Johnson Next Conservative Party Leader (4/1):
A month ago I wrote how Boris probably couldn't become leader here. However once Theresa May did not fire him for his Telegraph article he became the front runner by default. It's far from a foregone conclusion but 4s offers great value. He is as short as 3/1 with some bookies.
14.9.17: Donald Trump to Cease Being President in 2020 or Later (5/4):
He could quit, be impeached or even resign on health grounds but the value is still excellent. I had been mulling over this for a while but the catalyst to pull the trigger was Mueller's announcement that his investigation is focusing more on Russia's social media interference in US election
1.9.17: Labour to win the most seats at the next UK General election (4/5):
The value isn't fantastic but the Tories continue to get plenty of negative media coverage as the Brexit trainwreck rolls on. There is obviously a higher price for Jeremy Corbyn as next Prime Minister but there is every chance there may be an internal Tory mutiny before any election. This will be a slow burner so need patience.
17.08.17: Next Irish Government to be Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein (7/1):
As it stands in polling Fine Gael will be the largest party after the next general election. I can't see Fianna Fail accepting being a minority partner again if it any way close. Even if Fianna Fail finish first they will almost certainly fall short of an overall majority. The noise has already started on both sides and I expect it to get a lot louder over the next eighteen months
